GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/2017JD027005
The impact of the mean moisture bias on the key physics of MJO propagation in the ECMWF reforecast
Kim, Hye-Mi
2017-08-16
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN2169-897X
EISSN2169-8996
出版年2017
卷号122期号:15
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The impact of the seasonal mean background state on the physical processes responsible for better Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation and prediction was investigated using 20year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reforecast data sets. While the reforecast captures the MJO propagating signal in the circulation field, the outgoing longwave radiation and column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) anomalies show a weaker signal than the reanalysis when the MJO detours and propagates in the southern Maritime Continent. By comparing individual MSE budget terms, it is found that the predicted positive MSE tendency to the east of the MJO convection center is weaker than the reanalysis due to the weaker horizontal MSE advection. The dry bias in the seasonal mean lower tropospheric moisture is a key factor that weakens the horizontal MSE advection, and thus deteriorates the MJO propagation in the reforecasts. Therefore, improvements in the mean state could further extend the MJO prediction and associated subseasonal weather phenomena over the globe.


英文关键词MJO propagation and prediction mean moisture bias ECMWF reforecast
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000408349500005
WOS关键词MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; STATIC ENERGY BUDGET ; PREDICTION SKILL ; MARITIME CONTINENT ; FORECAST ; PREDICTABILITY ; FRAMEWORK ; MODES
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34379
专题气候变化
作者单位SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Kim, Hye-Mi. The impact of the mean moisture bias on the key physics of MJO propagation in the ECMWF reforecast[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(15).
APA Kim, Hye-Mi.(2017).The impact of the mean moisture bias on the key physics of MJO propagation in the ECMWF reforecast.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(15).
MLA Kim, Hye-Mi."The impact of the mean moisture bias on the key physics of MJO propagation in the ECMWF reforecast".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.15(2017).
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