Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017JD027005 |
The impact of the mean moisture bias on the key physics of MJO propagation in the ECMWF reforecast | |
Kim, Hye-Mi | |
2017-08-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 122期号:15 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The impact of the seasonal mean background state on the physical processes responsible for better Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation and prediction was investigated using 20year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reforecast data sets. While the reforecast captures the MJO propagating signal in the circulation field, the outgoing longwave radiation and column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) anomalies show a weaker signal than the reanalysis when the MJO detours and propagates in the southern Maritime Continent. By comparing individual MSE budget terms, it is found that the predicted positive MSE tendency to the east of the MJO convection center is weaker than the reanalysis due to the weaker horizontal MSE advection. The dry bias in the seasonal mean lower tropospheric moisture is a key factor that weakens the horizontal MSE advection, and thus deteriorates the MJO propagation in the reforecasts. Therefore, improvements in the mean state could further extend the MJO prediction and associated subseasonal weather phenomena over the globe. |
英文关键词 | MJO propagation and prediction mean moisture bias ECMWF reforecast |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000408349500005 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; STATIC ENERGY BUDGET ; PREDICTION SKILL ; MARITIME CONTINENT ; FORECAST ; PREDICTABILITY ; FRAMEWORK ; MODES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34379 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kim, Hye-Mi. The impact of the mean moisture bias on the key physics of MJO propagation in the ECMWF reforecast[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2017,122(15). |
APA | Kim, Hye-Mi.(2017).The impact of the mean moisture bias on the key physics of MJO propagation in the ECMWF reforecast.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,122(15). |
MLA | Kim, Hye-Mi."The impact of the mean moisture bias on the key physics of MJO propagation in the ECMWF reforecast".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 122.15(2017). |
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