Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3 |
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 degrees C | |
Rogelj, Joeri1,2; Popp, Alexander3; Calvin, Katherine V.4; Luderer, Gunnar3; Emmerling, Johannes5,6; Gernaat, David7,8; Fujimori, Shinichiro1,9; Strefler, Jessica3; Hasegawa, Tomoko1,9; Marangoni, Giacomo5,6; Krey, Volker1; Kriegler, Elmar3; Riahi, Keywan1; van Vuuren, Detlef P.7,8; Doelman, Jonathan7; Drouet, Laurent5,6; Edmonds, Jae4; Fricko, Oliver1; Harmsen, Mathijs7,8; Havlik, Petr1; Humpenoeder, Florian3; Stehfest, Elke7; Tavoni, Massimo5,6,10 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 8期号:4页码:325-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Austria; Switzerland; Germany; USA; Italy; Netherlands; Japan |
英文摘要 | The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m(-2), and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 degrees C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 degrees C. Successful 1.9 W m(-2) scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m(-2) scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429194600020 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; MODEL ; MITIGATION ; LAND ; FRAMEWORK |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34407 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; 2.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 3.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany; 4.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD USA; 5.Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan, Italy; 6.Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy; 7.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands; 8.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands; 9.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 10.Politecn Milan, Dept Management Econ & Ind Engn, Milan, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rogelj, Joeri,Popp, Alexander,Calvin, Katherine V.,et al. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 degrees C[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2018,8(4):325-+. |
APA | Rogelj, Joeri.,Popp, Alexander.,Calvin, Katherine V..,Luderer, Gunnar.,Emmerling, Johannes.,...&Tavoni, Massimo.(2018).Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 degrees C.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,8(4),325-+. |
MLA | Rogelj, Joeri,et al."Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 degrees C".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 8.4(2018):325-+. |
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