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DOI10.1029/2021GL096840
Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Extreme Cold Events in Early 2021: An Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis
Murong Zhang; Xiao-Yi Yang; Yipeng Huang
2022-01-10
发表期刊Geophysical Research Letters
出版年2022
英文摘要

Impacts of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) on three severe cold events (C1–C3) over Northern Hemisphere in early 2021 were investigated using subseasonal-to-seasonal ensemble forecasts. The SSW was characterized by successive displacement and split of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV). Ensemble-based sensitivity analyses showed that C1 over Siberia and C2 over western Canada were more related to SPV variations at a lead time of 1–2 weeks than C3 over central U.S. Within ensemble forecasts, a more elongated SPV with higher geopotential height over northern Eurasia were conducive to C1, whereas a SPV with more poleward retreat from displacement contributed to C2. The forecast accuracy of stratospheric heights over the sensitive region at 2-week lead was significantly correlated with the forecast skill of the tropospheric circulation pattern preceding C1, implying that prediction of specific cold weather events may be improved by a better forecast of key features in SPV variations.

领域气候变化
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/345110
专题气候变化
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GB/T 7714
Murong Zhang,Xiao-Yi Yang,Yipeng Huang. Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Extreme Cold Events in Early 2021: An Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2022.
APA Murong Zhang,Xiao-Yi Yang,&Yipeng Huang.(2022).Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Extreme Cold Events in Early 2021: An Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis.Geophysical Research Letters.
MLA Murong Zhang,et al."Impacts of Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Extreme Cold Events in Early 2021: An Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis".Geophysical Research Letters (2022).
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