Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NCLIMATE3274 |
The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses | |
Hedemann, Christopher1,2; Mauritsen, Thorsten1; Jungclaus, Johann1; Marotzke, Jochem1 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
![]() |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 7期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany |
英文摘要 | During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth's surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated(1). This surface-warming hiatus is attributed by some studies to model errors in external forcing(2-4), while others point to heat rearrangements in the ocean(5-10) caused by internal variability, the timing of which cannot be predicted by the models(1). However, observational analyses disagree about which ocean region is responsible(11-16). Here we show that the hiatus could also have been caused by internal variability in the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance. Energy budgeting for the ocean surface layer over a 100-member historical ensemble reveals that hiatuses are caused by energy-flux deviations as small as 0.08 W m(-2), which can originate at the top of the atmosphere, in the ocean, or both. Budgeting with existing observations cannot constrain the origin of the recent hiatus, because the uncertainty in observations dwarfs the small flux deviations that could cause a hiatus. The sensitivity of these flux deviations to the observational dataset and to energy budget choices helps explain why previous studies conflict, and suggests that the origin of the recent hiatus may never be identified. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400373500012 |
WOS关键词 | OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE ; PACIFIC ; VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34659 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundestr 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany; 2.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Int Max Planck Res Sch Earth Syst Modelling, Bundestr 53, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hedemann, Christopher,Mauritsen, Thorsten,Jungclaus, Johann,et al. The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2017,7(5). |
APA | Hedemann, Christopher,Mauritsen, Thorsten,Jungclaus, Johann,&Marotzke, Jochem.(2017).The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,7(5). |
MLA | Hedemann, Christopher,et al."The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 7.5(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论