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Intraseasonal scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation and evapotranspiration for the Madeira River basin using different physical parameterizations | |
Weslley de Brito Gomes, Prakki Satyamurty, Francis Wagner Silva Correia, Sin Chan Chou, ... André de Arruda Lyra | |
2022-02-17 | |
发表期刊 | Atmospheric Research
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出版年 | 2022 |
英文摘要 | Eta Regional Model of CPTEC-INPE is used to obtain intraseasonal (30-day) 8-member ensemble forecasts over the Madeira River basin for the period 2002–2012. The initial and boundary conditions are taken from Atmospheric General Circulation Global Model in six members and from Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model in two members. The intraseasonal forecasts produced by dynamic downscaling with Eta Regional model ensemble have satisfactory skill. The skill of the ensemble mean is better than the individual members up to 15-days lead time forecasts. The ensemble mean reproduces the seasonal cycle and spatial distribution of the hydrological variables. Members with the relaxation technique of Betts-Miller-Janjic produced better results. The forecasts by the members that used Kain-Fritsch scheme presented larger deviations from observations. Substantial improvements in skill are obtained through bias correction. This is the first work to attempt dynamic downscaling over the Madeira Basin in the intraseasonal time scale for a period of 10 years. The ensemble downscaled products have potential to be fed into surface hydrological models for forecasting droughts and floods and related hydrological variables over the basin. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
URL | 查看原文 |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/346628 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Weslley de Brito Gomes, Prakki Satyamurty, Francis Wagner Silva Correia, Sin Chan Chou, ... André de Arruda Lyra. Intraseasonal scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation and evapotranspiration for the Madeira River basin using different physical parameterizations[J]. Atmospheric Research,2022. |
APA | Weslley de Brito Gomes, Prakki Satyamurty, Francis Wagner Silva Correia, Sin Chan Chou, ... André de Arruda Lyra.(2022).Intraseasonal scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation and evapotranspiration for the Madeira River basin using different physical parameterizations.Atmospheric Research. |
MLA | Weslley de Brito Gomes, Prakki Satyamurty, Francis Wagner Silva Correia, Sin Chan Chou, ... André de Arruda Lyra."Intraseasonal scale ensemble forecasts of precipitation and evapotranspiration for the Madeira River basin using different physical parameterizations".Atmospheric Research (2022). |
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