Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/NGEO3017 |
Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity | |
Knutti, Reto1,2; Rugenstein, Maria A. A.1; Hegerl, Gabriele C.3 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE GEOSCIENCE
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ISSN | 1752-0894 |
EISSN | 1752-0908 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 10期号:10 |
文章类型 | Review |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; USA; Scotland |
英文摘要 | Equilibrium climate sensitivity characterizes the Earth's long-term global temperature response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. It has reached almost iconic status as the single number that describes how severe climate change will be. The consensus on the 'likely' range for climate sensitivity of 1.5 degrees C to 4.5 degrees C today is the same as given by Jule Charney in 1979, but now it is based on quantitative evidence from across the climate system and throughout climate history. The quest to constrain climate sensitivity has revealed important insights into the timescales of the climate system response, natural variability and limitations in observations and climate models, but also concerns about the simple concepts underlying climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, which opens avenues to better understand and constrain the climate response to forcing. Estimates of the transient climate response are better constrained by observed warming and are more relevant for predicting warming over the next decades. Newer metrics relating global warming directly to the total emitted CO2 show that in order to keep warming to within 2 degrees C, future CO2 emissions have to remain strongly limited, irrespective of climate sensitivity being at the high or low end. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000412102200008 |
WOS关键词 | OF-ATMOSPHERE RADIATION ; OCEAN HEAT UPTAKE ; ENERGY BUDGET CONSTRAINTS ; CUMULATIVE CO2 EMISSIONS ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; INCREASING CO2 ; TIME SCALES ; BAYESIAN-ESTIMATION |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/34946 |
专题 | 地球科学 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 3.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH9 3FE, Midlothian, Scotland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Knutti, Reto,Rugenstein, Maria A. A.,Hegerl, Gabriele C.. Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2017,10(10). |
APA | Knutti, Reto,Rugenstein, Maria A. A.,&Hegerl, Gabriele C..(2017).Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,10(10). |
MLA | Knutti, Reto,et al."Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity".NATURE GEOSCIENCE 10.10(2017). |
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