GSTDTAP  > 地球科学
DOI10.1038/NGEO2973
Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates
Santer, Benjamin D.1; Fyfe, John C.2; Pallotta, Giuliana1; Flato, Gregory M.2; Meehl, Gerald A.3; England, Matthew H.4; Hawkins, Ed5; Mann, Michael E.6,7; Painter, Jeffrey F.1; Bonfils, Celine1; Cvijanovic, Ivana1; Mears, Carl8; Wentz, Frank J.8; Po-Chedley, Stephen1; Fu, Qiang9; Zou, Cheng-Zhi10
2017-07-01
发表期刊NATURE GEOSCIENCE
ISSN1752-0894
EISSN1752-0908
出版年2017
卷号10期号:7
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA; Canada; Australia; England
英文摘要

In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble. Because observations and coupled model simulations do not have the same phasing of natural internal variability, such decadal differences in simulated and observed warming rates invariably occur. Here we analyse global-mean tropospheric temperatures from satellites and climate model simulations to examine whether warming rate differences over the satellite era can be explained by internal climate variability alone. We find that in the last two decades of the twentieth century, differences between modelled and observed tropospheric temperature trends are broadly consistent with internal variability. Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, model tropospheric warming is substantially larger than observed; warming rate differences are generally outside the range of trends arising from internal variability. The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty-first century results is low (between zero and about 9%). It is also unlikely that this asymmetry is due to the combined effects of internal variability and a model error in climate sensitivity. We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations.


领域地球科学 ; 气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000404621000008
WOS关键词TEMPERATURE TRENDS ; CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ; DECADAL CHANGES ; MSU CHANNEL-2 ; PACIFIC ; SIMULATIONS ; ROBUSTNESS ; HIATUS
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35035
专题地球科学
气候变化
作者单位1.Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, PCMDI, Livermore, CA 94550 USA;
2.Environm & Climate Change Canada, CCCma, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada;
3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA;
4.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;
5.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England;
6.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol, 503 Walker Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;
7.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA;
8.Remote Sensing Syst, Santa Rosa, CA 95401 USA;
9.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA;
10.NOAA, Ctr Satellite Applicat & Res, NESDIS, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Santer, Benjamin D.,Fyfe, John C.,Pallotta, Giuliana,et al. Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates[J]. NATURE GEOSCIENCE,2017,10(7).
APA Santer, Benjamin D..,Fyfe, John C..,Pallotta, Giuliana.,Flato, Gregory M..,Meehl, Gerald A..,...&Zou, Cheng-Zhi.(2017).Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates.NATURE GEOSCIENCE,10(7).
MLA Santer, Benjamin D.,et al."Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates".NATURE GEOSCIENCE 10.7(2017).
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