Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4073-y |
Time of emergence in regional precipitation changes: an updated assessment using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble | |
Thuy-Huong Nguyen1,2; Min, Seung-Ki1; Paik, Seungmok1; Lee, Donghyun1 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:3179-3193 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; Vietnam |
英文摘要 | This study conducted an updated time of emergence (ToE) analysis of regional precipitation changes over land regions across the globe using multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). ToEs were estimated for 14 selected hotspots over two seasons of April to September (AS) and October to March (OM) from three RCP scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and high (RCP8.5) emissions. Results from the RCP8.5 scenario indicate that ToEs would occur before 2040 over seven hotspots including three northern high-latitude regions (OM wettening), East Africa (OM wettening), South Asia (AS wettening), East Asia (AS wettening) and South Africa (AS drying). The Mediterranean (both OM and AS drying) is expected to experience ToEs in the mid-twenty-first century (2040-2080). In order to measure possible benefits from taking low-emission scenarios, ToE differences were examined between the RCP2.6 scenario and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Significant ToE delays from 26 years to longer than 67 years were identified over East Africa (OM wettening), the Mediterranean (both AS and OM drying), South Asia (AS wettening), and South Africa (AS drying). Further, we investigated ToE differences between CMIP3-based and CMIP5-based models using the same number of models for the comparable scenario pairs (SRESA2 vs. RCP8.5, and SRESB1 vs. RCP4.5). Results were largely consistent between two model groups, indicating the robustness of ToE results. Considerable differences in ToEs (larger than 20 years) between two model groups appeared over East Asia and South Asia (AS wettening) and South Africa (AS drying), which were found due to stronger signals in CMIP5 models. Our results provide useful information on the timing of emerging signals in regional and seasonal hydrological changes, having important implications for associated adaptation and mitigation plans. |
英文关键词 | Time of emergence Precipitation CMIP5 RCP scenarios Signal-to-noise ratio |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447366100001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SCENARIOS ; FUTURE ; UNCERTAINTIES ; PROJECTIONS ; HOTSPOTS ; SIGNALS ; HEAT ; ASIA |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35311 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Pohang Univ Sci & Technol, Div Environm Sci & Engn, 77 Cheongam Ro, Pohang 37673, Gyeongbuk, South Korea; 2.Univ Sci & Technol Hanoi, REMOSAT Lab, Hanoi, Vietnam |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thuy-Huong Nguyen,Min, Seung-Ki,Paik, Seungmok,et al. Time of emergence in regional precipitation changes: an updated assessment using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:3179-3193. |
APA | Thuy-Huong Nguyen,Min, Seung-Ki,Paik, Seungmok,&Lee, Donghyun.(2018).Time of emergence in regional precipitation changes: an updated assessment using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,3179-3193. |
MLA | Thuy-Huong Nguyen,et al."Time of emergence in regional precipitation changes: an updated assessment using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):3179-3193. |
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