Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3793-8 |
An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models | |
Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A. | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:3063-3080 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428600200043 |
WOS关键词 | MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; GENERATION ; SCENARIOS ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35326 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Menary, Matthew B.,Wood, Richard A.. An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:3063-3080. |
APA | Menary, Matthew B.,&Wood, Richard A..(2018).An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,3063-3080. |
MLA | Menary, Matthew B.,et al."An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):3063-3080. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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