GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3410-2
How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble
Yettella, Vineel1,2; Kay, Jennifer E.1,2
2017-09-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号49
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics.


英文关键词Extratropical cyclones Precipitation Storm tracks Climate variability Initial condition ensembles
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000408718200016
WOS关键词TROPICAL CIRCULATION ; MIDLATITUDE CYCLONES ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; HEMISPHERE ; CLOUD ; VARIABILITY ; PROJECTIONS ; STORMS ; WORLD ; CYCLE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35339
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Colorado Boulder, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci CIRES, 216 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 USA;
2.Univ Colorado Boulder, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci ATOC, 216 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
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Yettella, Vineel,Kay, Jennifer E.. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49.
APA Yettella, Vineel,&Kay, Jennifer E..(2017).How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49.
MLA Yettella, Vineel,et al."How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017).
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