Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3410-2 |
How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble | |
Yettella, Vineel1,2; Kay, Jennifer E.1,2 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipitation results from increased within-cyclone precipitation. Consistent with this result, cyclone-centric composites show statistically significant precipitation increases in all cyclone sectors. Decomposition into thermodynamic (mean cyclone water vapor path) and dynamic (mean cyclone wind speed) contributions shows that thermodynamics explains 92 and 95% of the near-future and far-future within-cyclone precipitation increases respectively. Surprisingly, the influence of dynamics on future cyclonic precipitation changes is negligible. In addition, the forced response exceeds internal variability in both future time periods. Overall, this work suggests that future cyclonic precipitation changes will result primarily from increased moisture availability in a warmer world, with secondary contributions from changes in cyclone frequency and cyclone dynamics. |
英文关键词 | Extratropical cyclones Precipitation Storm tracks Climate variability Initial condition ensembles |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000408718200016 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL CIRCULATION ; MIDLATITUDE CYCLONES ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; HEMISPHERE ; CLOUD ; VARIABILITY ; PROJECTIONS ; STORMS ; WORLD ; CYCLE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35339 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Colorado Boulder, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci CIRES, 216 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.Univ Colorado Boulder, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci ATOC, 216 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yettella, Vineel,Kay, Jennifer E.. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49. |
APA | Yettella, Vineel,&Kay, Jennifer E..(2017).How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49. |
MLA | Yettella, Vineel,et al."How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017). |
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