Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6b10 |
Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States | |
Keyser, Alisa; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | A long history of fire suppression in the western United States has significantly changed forest structure and ecological function, leading to increasingly uncharacteristic fires in terms of size and severity. Prior analyses of fire severity in California forests showed that time since last fire and fire weather conditions predicted fire severity very well, while a larger regional analysis showed that topography and climate were important predictors of high severity fire. There has not yet been a large-scale study that incorporates topography, vegetation and fire-year climate to determine regional scale high severity fire occurrence. We developed models to predict the probability of high severity fire occurrence for the western US. We predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, and identify the relative importance of predictor classes in determining the probability of high severity fire. The inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for model skill in identifying fires with high fractional fire severity. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows this model to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire. |
英文关键词 | fire severity moisture deficit logistic regression |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402551200003 |
WOS关键词 | SIERRA-NEVADA ; STATISTICAL-MODEL ; FOREST ; WILDFIRE ; CALIFORNIA ; VEGETATION ; US |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35362 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Calif Merced, Sierra Nevada Res Inst, 5200 N Lake Rd, Merced, CA 95340 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Keyser, Alisa,Westerling, Anthony LeRoy. Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(6). |
APA | Keyser, Alisa,&Westerling, Anthony LeRoy.(2017).Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(6). |
MLA | Keyser, Alisa,et al."Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.6(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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