GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40
Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 degrees C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna
Faye, Babacar1; Webber, Heidi1,2; Naab, Jesse B.3; MacCarthy, Dilys S.4; Adam, Myriam5,6,7; Ewert, Frank1,2; Lamers, John P. A.8; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich9,10; Ruane, Alex11; Gessner, Ursula12; Hoogenboom, Gerrit13; Boote, Ken13; Shelia, Vakhtang13; Saeed, Fahad9,14; Wisser, Dominik15; Hadir, Sofia1; Laux, Patrick16; Gaiser, Thomas1
2018-03-01
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2018
卷号13期号:3
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany; Burkina Faso; Ghana; France; Mali; USA; Saudi Arabia; Italy
英文摘要

To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 degrees C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5 degrees C versus 2.0 degrees C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in theWest African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0 degrees C compared to 1.5 degrees C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security.


英文关键词1.5 degrees C West Africa food security climate change DSSAT SIMPLACE
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000425985200002
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; FOOD SECURITY ; HEAT-STRESS ; CANOPY TEMPERATURE ; MAIZE YIELD ; CROP YIELDS ; SOIL ; SIMULATION ; MODEL ; PHOSPHORUS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35392
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany;
2.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, Inst Landscape Syst Anal, Muncheberg, Germany;
3.West African Sci Serv Ctr Climate Change & Adapte, 06,BP 9507, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso;
4.Univ Ghana, Coll Basic & Appl Sci, Soil & Irrigat Res Ctr, Kpong, Ghana;
5.Ctr Coop, Int Rech Agron Dev CIRAD, AGAP, UMR, F-34398 Montpellier, France;
6.Int Crops Res Inst Semi Arid Trop, Int Crops Res Inst Semiarid Trop ICRISAT, BP320, Bamako, Mali;
7.INERA, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso;
8.Ctr Dev Res ZEF, Genscherallee 3,Walter Flex Str 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany;
9.Climate Analyt, Berlin, Germany;
10.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany;
11.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 USA;
12.German Aerosp Ctr DLR, German Remote Sensing Data Ctr DFD, D-82234 Wessling, Germany;
13.Univ Florida, Inst Sustainable Food Syst, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, 256 Frazier Rogers Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA;
14.King Abdulaziz Univ, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia;
15.UN Food & Agr Org FAO, Rome, Italy;
16.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Campus Alpin,Kreuzeckbahnstr 19, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany
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GB/T 7714
Faye, Babacar,Webber, Heidi,Naab, Jesse B.,et al. Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 degrees C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(3).
APA Faye, Babacar.,Webber, Heidi.,Naab, Jesse B..,MacCarthy, Dilys S..,Adam, Myriam.,...&Gaiser, Thomas.(2018).Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 degrees C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(3).
MLA Faye, Babacar,et al."Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 degrees C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.3(2018).
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