Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5ef7 |
Impact of seasonal forecast use on agricultural income in a system with varying crop costs and returns: an empirically-grounded simulation | |
Gunda, T.1,2; Bazuin, J. T.1; Nay, J.3,4; Yeung, K. L.5 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Access to seasonal climate forecasts can benefit farmers by allowing them to make more informed decisions about their farming practices. However, it is unclear whether farmers realize these benefits when crop choices available to farmers have different and variable costs and returns; multiple countries have programs that incentivize production of certain crops while other crops are subject to market fluctuations. We hypothesize that the benefits of forecasts on farmer livelihoods will be moderated by the combined impact of differing crop economics and changing climate. Drawing upon methods and insights from both physical and social sciences, we develop a model of farmer decision-making to evaluate this hypothesis. The model dynamics are explored using empirical data from Sri Lanka; primary sources include survey and interview information as well as game-based experiments conducted with farmers in the field. Our simulations show that a farmer using seasonal forecasts has more diversified crop selections, which drive increases in average agricultural income. Increases in income are particularly notable under a drier climate scenario, when a farmer using seasonal forecasts is more likely to plant onions, a crop with higher possible returns. Our results indicate that, when water resources are scarce (i.e. drier climate scenario), farmer incomes could become stratified, potentially compounding existing disparities in farmers' financial and technical abilities to use forecasts to inform their crop selections. This analysis highlights that while programs that promote production of certain crops may ensure food security in the short-term, the long-term implications of these dynamics need careful evaluation. |
英文关键词 | weather forecasts coupled natural and human systems system dynamics model laboratory in the field games farmers climate change adaptation agriculture systems |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395912200001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FARMING SYSTEMS ; FOOD SECURITY ; SUBSISTENCE FARMERS ; ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ; RISK-MANAGEMENT ; WATER CYCLE ; SRI-LANKA ; ADAPTATION ; SMALLHOLDER |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35406 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Vanderbilt Inst Energy & Environm, PMB 407702,2301 Vanderbilt Pl, Nashville, TN 37240 USA; 2.Dept Civil & Environm Engn, PMB 407702,2301 Vanderbilt Pl, Nashville, TN USA; 3.Vanderbilt Univ, Sch Engn, PMB 351826,2301 Vanderbilt Pl, Nashville, TN 37235 USA; 4.Vanderbilt Law Sch Program Law & Innovat, PMB 351826,2301 Vanderbilt Pl, Nashville, TN 37235 USA; 5.Univ North Florida, Dept Psychol, Bldg 51, Jacksonville, FL USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gunda, T.,Bazuin, J. T.,Nay, J.,et al. Impact of seasonal forecast use on agricultural income in a system with varying crop costs and returns: an empirically-grounded simulation[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(3). |
APA | Gunda, T.,Bazuin, J. T.,Nay, J.,&Yeung, K. L..(2017).Impact of seasonal forecast use on agricultural income in a system with varying crop costs and returns: an empirically-grounded simulation.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(3). |
MLA | Gunda, T.,et al."Impact of seasonal forecast use on agricultural income in a system with varying crop costs and returns: an empirically-grounded simulation".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.3(2017). |
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