Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3075-x |
Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation | |
Shaffrey, L. C.1; Hodson, D.1; Robson, J.1; Stevens, D. P.2; Hawkins, E.1; Polo, I.1; Stevens, I.2; Sutton, R. T.1; Lister, G.1; Iwi, A.3; Smith, D.4; Stephens, A.3 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
![]() |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean, the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. |
英文关键词 | Decadal prediction Climate variability High-resolution climate modelling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000392307300017 |
WOS关键词 | ATLANTIC-OCEAN ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; SIMULATIONS ; BIASES ; IMPACT ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35456 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England; 2.Univ East Anglia, Sch Math, Ctr Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Norwich, Norfolk, England; 3.Rutherford Appleton Lab, British Atmospher Data Ctr, Chilton, England; 4.Met Off Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shaffrey, L. C.,Hodson, D.,Robson, J.,et al. Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Shaffrey, L. C..,Hodson, D..,Robson, J..,Stevens, D. P..,Hawkins, E..,...&Stephens, A..(2017).Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Shaffrey, L. C.,et al."Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论