Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3719-5 |
Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model | |
Lee, Hyun-Chul1,3; Kumar, Arun2; Wang, Wanqiu2 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:1747-1767 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426707100016 |
WOS关键词 | SPRING PREDICTABILITY BARRIER ; DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM ; EL-NINO ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; CLIMATE MODEL ; KELVIN WAVES ; VARIABILITY ; GROWTH ; THERMOCLINE ; ENSEMBLE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35512 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.NOAA, Environm Modeling Ctr, NCEP, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 2.NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, NCEP, College Pk, MD USA; 3.IMSG, Rockville, MD 20852 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lee, Hyun-Chul,Kumar, Arun,Wang, Wanqiu. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:1747-1767. |
APA | Lee, Hyun-Chul,Kumar, Arun,&Wang, Wanqiu.(2018).Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,1747-1767. |
MLA | Lee, Hyun-Chul,et al."Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):1747-1767. |
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