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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4226-z |
Process-conditioned bias correction for seasonal forecasting: a case-study with ENSO in Peru | |
Manzanas, R.; Gutierrez, J. M. | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:1673-1683 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain |
英文摘要 | This work assesses the suitability of a first simple attempt for process-conditioned bias correction in the context of seasonal forecasting. To do this, we focus on the northwestern part of Peru and bias correct 1- and 4-month lead seasonal predictions of boreal winter (DJF) precipitation from theECMWF System4 forecasting system for the period 1981-2010. In order to include information about the underlying large-scale circulation which may help to discriminate between precipitation affected by different processes, we introduce here an empirical quantile-quantile mapping method which runs conditioned on the state of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is accurately predicted by System4 and is known to affect the local climate.Beyond the reduction of model biases, our results show that the SOI-conditioned method yields better ROC skill scores and reliability than the raw model output over the entire region of study, whereas the standard unconditioned implementation provides no added value for any of these metrics. This suggests that conditioning the bias correction on simple but well-simulated large-scale processes relevant to the local climate may be a suitable approach for seasonal forecasting. Yet, further research on the suitability of the application of similar approaches to the one considered here for other regions, seasons and/or variables is needed. |
英文关键词 | Bias correction Process-conditioning Seasonal forecasting Precipitation ENSO SOI Peru |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000460902200021 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS ; PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTION ; RAINFALL ; SKILL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35529 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Cantabria, CSIC, Meteorol Grp, Inst Phys Cantabria IFCA, E-39005 Santander, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Manzanas, R.,Gutierrez, J. M.. Process-conditioned bias correction for seasonal forecasting: a case-study with ENSO in Peru[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:1673-1683. |
APA | Manzanas, R.,&Gutierrez, J. M..(2019).Process-conditioned bias correction for seasonal forecasting: a case-study with ENSO in Peru.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,1673-1683. |
MLA | Manzanas, R.,et al."Process-conditioned bias correction for seasonal forecasting: a case-study with ENSO in Peru".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):1673-1683. |
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