Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-4018-x |
Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China | |
Shi, Ying1; Wang, Guiling2,3; Gao, Xuejie4,5 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:2375-2396 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875A degrees x 1.25A degrees degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 A degrees C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days' total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes). |
英文关键词 | Climate change Regional climate model Horizontal resolution China |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000442433200044 |
WOS关键词 | MONSOON PRECIPITATION ; MODEL RESOLUTION ; DAILY TEMPERATURE ; RCM SIMULATION ; DRIVING GCM ; EAST-ASIA ; EXTREMES ; SCENARIOS ; DATASET ; REGCM4 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35531 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Connecticut, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Storrs, CT 06269 USA; 3.Univ Connecticut, Ctr Environm Sci & Engn, Storrs, CT 06269 USA; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Climate Change Res Ctr, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shi, Ying,Wang, Guiling,Gao, Xuejie. Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:2375-2396. |
APA | Shi, Ying,Wang, Guiling,&Gao, Xuejie.(2018).Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,2375-2396. |
MLA | Shi, Ying,et al."Role of resolution in regional climate change projections over China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):2375-2396. |
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