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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3222-4 |
How predictable is the winter extremely cold days over temperate East Asia? | |
Luo, Xiao1,2,3; Wang, Bin2,3,4 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Skillful seasonal prediction of the number of extremely cold day (NECD) has considerable benefits for climate risk management and economic planning. Yet, predictability of NECD associated with East Asia winter monsoon remains largely unexplored. The present work estimates the NECD predictability in temperate East Asia (TEA, 30A degrees-50A degrees N, 110A degrees-140A degrees E) where the current dynamical models exhibit limited prediction skill. We show that about 50 % of the total variance of the NECD in TEA region is likely predictable, which is estimated by using a physics-based empirical (P-E) model with three consequential autumn predictors, i.e., developing El Nio/La Nia, Eurasian Arctic Ocean temperature anomalies, and geopotential height anomalies over northern and eastern Asia. We find that the barotropic geopotential height anomaly over Asia can persist from autumn to winter, thereby serving as a predictor for winter NECD. Further analysis reveals that the sources of the NECD predictability and the physical basis for prediction of NECD are essentially the same as those for prediction of winter mean temperature over the same region. This finding implies that forecasting seasonal mean temperature can provide useful information for prediction of extreme cold events. Interpretation of the lead-lag linkages between the three predictors and the predictand is provided for stimulating further studies. |
英文关键词 | Climate predictability Prediction of extremely cold events East Asia winter monsoon (EAWM) El Nino/La Nina Arctic Ocean temperature anomalies |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000398926400027 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS ; MONSOON ; TELECONNECTION ; FREQUENCY ; FORECAST ; ENSEMBLE ; NORTHERN ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35553 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 3.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Atmosphere Ocean Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; 4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Earth Syst Modeling Ctr, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luo, Xiao,Wang, Bin. How predictable is the winter extremely cold days over temperate East Asia?[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Luo, Xiao,&Wang, Bin.(2017).How predictable is the winter extremely cold days over temperate East Asia?.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Luo, Xiao,et al."How predictable is the winter extremely cold days over temperate East Asia?".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
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