Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-4023-0 |
Changes of tropical cyclone landfalls in South China throughout the twenty-first century | |
Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L. | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:2467-2483 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The nested regional climate/mesoscale modelling system developed by the authors is applied to the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2-Earth System global model outputs to project future changes of landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the South China region. Results show that the modelling system is capable of reproducing the current TC landfall climatology, although it exhibits a noticeable southward bias of TC activity of in the western North Pacific. Future projections show a continuous northward migration of TC activity in the western North Pacific throughout the twenty-first century. Fewer TCs making landfall in South China are projected in the late century, but these landfalling TCs tend to be more intense. Investigations in the large-scale environment suggest that despite warmer sea surface temperature and weaker vertical wind shear, the drier and less cyclonic lower atmosphere all-season is responsible for the reduced TC activity. However, once a TC is formed, the environment it stays in is as wet as today and so it can intensify further than the present-day TCs. Inter-annual variability is also explored, and the influence of the ENSO variation appears to be smaller. |
英文关键词 | Tropical cyclone landfall Tropical cyclone intensity Climate projection Downscaling Regional climate model WRF East Asia |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000444947600004 |
WOS关键词 | WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL ; CMIP5 MODELS ; HURRICANE INTENSITY ; PROJECTIONS ; GENESIS ; SEA ; ENSO ; ENVIRONMENT ; FREQUENCY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35562 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | City Univ Hong Kong, Sch Energy & Environm, 83 Tat Chee Ave, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lok, Charlie C. F.,Chan, Johnny C. L.. Changes of tropical cyclone landfalls in South China throughout the twenty-first century[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:2467-2483. |
APA | Lok, Charlie C. F.,&Chan, Johnny C. L..(2018).Changes of tropical cyclone landfalls in South China throughout the twenty-first century.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,2467-2483. |
MLA | Lok, Charlie C. F.,et al."Changes of tropical cyclone landfalls in South China throughout the twenty-first century".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):2467-2483. |
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