Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3606-0 |
Projecting 21st century snowpack trends in western USA mountains using variable-resolution CESM | |
Rhoades, Alan M.1; Ullrich, Paul A.1; Zarzycki, Colin M.2 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:261-288 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Climate change will impact western USA water supplies by shifting precipitation from snow to rain and driving snowmelt earlier in the season. However, changes at the regional-to-mountain scale is still a major topic of interest. This study addresses the impacts of climate change on mountain snowpack by assessing historical and projected variable-resolution (VR) climate simulations in the community earth system model (VR-CESM) forced by prescribed sea-surface temperatures along with widely used regional downscaling techniques, the coupled model intercomparison projects phase 5 bias corrected and statistically downscaled (CMIP5-BCSD) and the North American regional climate change assessment program (NARCCAP). The multi-model RCP8.5 scenario analysis of winter season SWE for western USA mountains indicates by 2040-2065 mean SWE could decrease -19% (NARCCAP) to -38% (VR-CESM), with an ensemble median change of -27%. Contrary to CMIP5-BCSD and NARCCAP, VR-CESM highlights a more pessimistic outcome for western USA mountain snowpack in latter-parts of the 21st century. This is related to temperature changes altering the snow-albedo feedback, snowpack storage, and precipitation phase, but may indicate that VR-CESM resolves more physically consistent elevational effects lacking in statistically downscaled datasets and teleconnections that are not captured in limited area models. Overall, VR-CESM projects by 2075-2100 that average western USA mountain snowfall decreases by -30%, snow cover by -44%, SWE by -69%, and average surface temperature increase of +5.0 degrees C. This places pressure on western USA states to preemptively invest in climate adaptation measures such as alternative water storage, water use efficiency, and reassess reservoir storage operations. |
英文关键词 | Climate change Western USA Mountain snowpack Regional climate modeling Variable-resolution climate modeling Elevation-dependent warming |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000422908700017 |
WOS关键词 | COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL ; SHALLOW-WATER EQUATIONS ; SIERRA-NEVADA ; CLIMATE SIMULATIONS ; SNOWMELT RUNOFF ; PRECIPITATION ; CALIFORNIA ; ENSO ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35628 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Land Air & Water Resources LAWR, Davis, CA 95616 USA; 2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rhoades, Alan M.,Ullrich, Paul A.,Zarzycki, Colin M.. Projecting 21st century snowpack trends in western USA mountains using variable-resolution CESM[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:261-288. |
APA | Rhoades, Alan M.,Ullrich, Paul A.,&Zarzycki, Colin M..(2018).Projecting 21st century snowpack trends in western USA mountains using variable-resolution CESM.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,261-288. |
MLA | Rhoades, Alan M.,et al."Projecting 21st century snowpack trends in western USA mountains using variable-resolution CESM".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):261-288. |
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