Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3766-y |
Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users | |
Alessandri, Andrea1,2; De Felice, Matteo2; Catalano, Franco2; Lee, June-Yi3,4; Wang, Bin5; Lee, Doo Young6; Yoo, Jin-Ho7; Weisheimer, Antije8 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:2719-2738 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands; Italy; South Korea; USA; Spain; England |
英文摘要 | Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model ensembles. Previous works suggested that the potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplifies with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. In this work we combine the two MME Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs) independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (APCC/CliPAS) communities. To this aim, all the possible multi-model combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from APCC/CliPAS have been evaluated. The grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME enhances significantly the skill in predicting 2m temperature and precipitation compared to previous estimates from the contributing MMEs. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and APCC/CliPAS models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The number and selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration so that all models are useful in some cases. It is shown that the incremental performance contribution tends to be higher when adding one model from ENSEMBLES to APCC/CliPAS MMEs and vice versa, confirming that the benefit of using MMEs amplifies with the increase of the independence the contributing models. To verify the above results for a real world application, the Grand ENSEMBLES-APCC/CliPAS MME is used to predict retrospective energy demand over Italy as provided by TERNA (Italian Transmission System Operator) for the period 1990-2007. The results demonstrate the useful application of MME seasonal predictions for energy demand forecasting over Italy. It is shown a significant enhancement of the potential economic value of forecasting energy demand when using the better combinations from the Grand MME by comparison to the maximum value obtained from the better combinations of each of the two contributing MMEs. The above results demonstrate for the first time the potential of the Grand MME to significantly contribute in obtaining useful predictions at the seasonal time-scale. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal climate prediction Multi-model ensembles Coupled general circulation models Energy application |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428600200023 |
WOS关键词 | TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION ; CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; SYSTEM ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35659 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst, POB 201, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands; 2.Agenzia Nazl Nuove Tecnol Energia & Sviluppo Econ, Rome, Italy; 3.Pusan Natl Univ, Interdisciplinary Program Climate Sci, Busan, South Korea; 4.Pusan Natl Univ, IBS Ctr Climate Phys, Busan, South Korea; 5.Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI USA; 6.CNS, BSC, Barcelona, Spain; 7.Asian Pacific Econ Cooperat Climate Ctr APCC, Busan, South Korea; 8.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alessandri, Andrea,De Felice, Matteo,Catalano, Franco,et al. Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:2719-2738. |
APA | Alessandri, Andrea.,De Felice, Matteo.,Catalano, Franco.,Lee, June-Yi.,Wang, Bin.,...&Weisheimer, Antije.(2018).Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,2719-2738. |
MLA | Alessandri, Andrea,et al."Grand European and Asian-Pacific multi-model seasonal forecasts: maximization of skill and of potential economical value to end-users".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):2719-2738. |
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