GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3254-9
Prediction of interannual North Atlantic sea surface temperature and its remote influence over land
Lienert, Fabian1; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.1,2
2017-05-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号48
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Spain
英文摘要

The quality of a multimodel of six coupled climate forecast systems initialized with observations-relative to the accompanying uninitialized system-to re-forecast the future annual-mean North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) departures is described. The study concludes that, measured by the anomaly correlation (AC) skill, the evolution of the leading two empirical orthogonal function modes of North Atlantic SSTs are skillfully forecast throughout the 9-year forecast range. This skill results in part from the predictions of the trend. The skill of the detrended modes, i.e., in absence of SST variability generated by the trend, is reduced, but still statistically distinguishable from zero throughout the 9-year forecast for the first mode and exclusively in the first two forecast years for the second mode. The initialization effect on the AC skill in the initialized system is statistically distinguishable from the one without initialization for the detrended first mode during the first three forecast years and the first forecast year only when the trend in North Atlantic SSTs is included. All six initialized systems of the multimodel are capable to skillfully forecast the shift of the full first mode of North Atlantic SST anomalies in the mid 1990s at all leads with HadCM 3 and EC-Earth 2.3 outperforming other systems. All systems share an intrinsic bias in simulating annual-mean SST variability in the North Atlantic. The study finds that the area-average AC skill (i.e., of a forecast containing regional information) of the North Atlantic influence on anomalous European temperature in the initialized multimodel is positive and statistically distinguishable from zero throughout the 9-year forecast for the full field case. On the other hand, a continent-wide forecast (i.e., without any regional information) of future European precipitation departures associated with North Atlantic SST variability is skillful throughout the 9-year forecast for the full field case-once the model remote influence is corrected by the observed. For the detrended case, the forecasts of the influence of the North Atlantic SSTs on both interannual temperature and precipitation departures in Europe show residual skill-which means that the multimodel is able to predict part of them beyond the trend. However, the forecasts of the North Atlantic influence on precipitation departures in the Sahel turn out not to be skillful.


英文关键词North Atlantic Decadal climate prediction Sea surface temperature Climate variability Europe Sahel CMIP 5
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000399431900018
WOS关键词CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; DECADAL PREDICTION ; OCEAN ; FORECASTS ; ENSEMBLE ; MODEL ; PREDICTABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35677
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Inst Catala Ciencies Clima, Barcelona, Spain;
2.ICREA, Barcelona, Spain
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GB/T 7714
Lienert, Fabian,Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.. Prediction of interannual North Atlantic sea surface temperature and its remote influence over land[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48.
APA Lienert, Fabian,&Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J..(2017).Prediction of interannual North Atlantic sea surface temperature and its remote influence over land.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48.
MLA Lienert, Fabian,et al."Prediction of interannual North Atlantic sea surface temperature and its remote influence over land".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017).
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