GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3148-x
The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models
Whan, Kirien; Zwiers, Francis
2017-03-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号48
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Canada
英文摘要

The relationship between winter precipitation in North America and indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions with the indices as covariates. Both covariates have a statistically significant influence on precipitation that is well simulated by two regional climate models (RCMs), CanRCM4 and CRCM5. The observed influence of the NAO on extreme precipitation is largest in eastern North America, with the likelihood of a negative phase extreme rainfall event decreased in the north and increased in the south under the positive phase of the NAO. This pattern is generally well simulated by the RCMs although there are some differences in the extent of influence, particularly south of the Great Lakes. A La Nia-magnitude extreme event is more likely to occur under El Nio conditions in California and the southern United States, and less likely in most of Canada and a region south of the Great Lakes. This broad pattern is also simulated well by the RCMs but they do not capture the increased likelihood in California. In some places the extreme precipitation response in the RCMs to external forcing from a covariate is of the opposite sign, despite use of the same lateral boundary conditions and dynamical core. This demonstrates the importance of model physics for teleconnections to extreme precipitation.


英文关键词Extreme precipitation GEV ENSO NAO
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000395060900001
WOS关键词LAND-SURFACE SCHEME ; UNITED-STATES ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; FIELD SIGNIFICANCE ; PART I ; VARIABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; PERFORMANCE ; REANALYSIS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35718
专题气候变化
作者单位Univ Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Stn CSC, Univ House 1,POB 1700, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada
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GB/T 7714
Whan, Kirien,Zwiers, Francis. The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48.
APA Whan, Kirien,&Zwiers, Francis.(2017).The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48.
MLA Whan, Kirien,et al."The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017).
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