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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3148-x |
The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models | |
Whan, Kirien; Zwiers, Francis | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | The relationship between winter precipitation in North America and indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is evaluated using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions with the indices as covariates. Both covariates have a statistically significant influence on precipitation that is well simulated by two regional climate models (RCMs), CanRCM4 and CRCM5. The observed influence of the NAO on extreme precipitation is largest in eastern North America, with the likelihood of a negative phase extreme rainfall event decreased in the north and increased in the south under the positive phase of the NAO. This pattern is generally well simulated by the RCMs although there are some differences in the extent of influence, particularly south of the Great Lakes. A La Nia-magnitude extreme event is more likely to occur under El Nio conditions in California and the southern United States, and less likely in most of Canada and a region south of the Great Lakes. This broad pattern is also simulated well by the RCMs but they do not capture the increased likelihood in California. In some places the extreme precipitation response in the RCMs to external forcing from a covariate is of the opposite sign, despite use of the same lateral boundary conditions and dynamical core. This demonstrates the importance of model physics for teleconnections to extreme precipitation. |
英文关键词 | Extreme precipitation GEV ENSO NAO |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395060900001 |
WOS关键词 | LAND-SURFACE SCHEME ; UNITED-STATES ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; FIELD SIGNIFICANCE ; PART I ; VARIABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; PERFORMANCE ; REANALYSIS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35718 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Stn CSC, Univ House 1,POB 1700, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Whan, Kirien,Zwiers, Francis. The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Whan, Kirien,&Zwiers, Francis.(2017).The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Whan, Kirien,et al."The impact of ENSO and the NAO on extreme winter precipitation in North America in observations and regional climate models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
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