Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3469-9 |
Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 degrees C global warming | |
Guo, Donglin1,2,3; Wang, Huijun1,4 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
![]() |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Global warming of 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels has been considered to be the threshold that should not be exceeded by the global mean temperature to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. However, this global mean target has different implications for different regions owing to the globally nonuniform climate change characteristics. Permafrost is sensitive to climate change; moreover, it is widely distributed in high-latitude and high-altitude regions where the greatest warming is predicted. Permafrost is expected to be severely affected by even the 2 degrees C global warming, which, in turn, affects other systems such as water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructures. Using air and soil temperature data from ten coupled model intercomparison project phase five models combined with observations of frozen ground, we investigated the permafrost thaw and associated ground settlement under 2 degrees C global warming. Results show that the climate models produced an ensemble mean permafrost area of 14.01 x 10(6) km(2), which compares reasonably with the area of 13.89 x 10(6) km(2) (north of 45A degrees N) in the observations. The models predict that the soil temperature at 6 m depth will increase by 2.34-2.67 degrees C on area average relative to 1990-2000, and the increase intensifies with increasing latitude. The active layer thickness will also increase by 0.42-0.45 m, but dissimilar to soil temperature, the increase weakens with increasing latitude due to the distinctly cooler permafrost at higher latitudes. The permafrost extent will obviously retreat north and decrease by 24-26% and the ground settlement owing to permafrost thaw is estimated at 3.8-15 cm on area average. Possible uncertainties in this study may be mostly attributed to the less accurate ground ice content data and coarse horizontal resolution of the models. |
英文关键词 | Permafrost degradation Ground settlement 2 degrees C global warming CMIP5 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000410803300020 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; CMIP5 ; CHINA ; SIMULATION ; SCENARIOS ; REGIONS ; TEMPERATURE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35782 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atsmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, CIC FEMD, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Joint Lab Climate & Environm Change, Chengdu 610225, Sichuan, Peoples R China; 4.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Minist Educ KLME, CIC FEMD, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Guo, Donglin,Wang, Huijun. Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 degrees C global warming[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49. |
APA | Guo, Donglin,&Wang, Huijun.(2017).Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 degrees C global warming.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49. |
MLA | Guo, Donglin,et al."Permafrost degradation and associated ground settlement estimation under 2 degrees C global warming".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
查看访问统计 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Guo, Donglin]的文章 |
[Wang, Huijun]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Guo, Donglin]的文章 |
[Wang, Huijun]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Guo, Donglin]的文章 |
[Wang, Huijun]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论