Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3392-0 |
Impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation | |
Marshall, Andrew G.1; Hendon, Harry H.2,3; Son, Seok-Woo4; Lim, Yuna4 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Japan; South Korea |
英文摘要 | The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) during boreal winter is observed to be stronger during the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) than during the westerly phase, with the QBO zonal wind at 50 hPa leading enhanced MJO activity by about 1 month. Using 30 years of retrospective forecasts from the POAMA coupled model forecast system, we show that this strengthened MJO activity during the easterly QBO phase translates to improved prediction of the MJO and its convective anomalies across the tropical Indo-Pacific region by about 8 days lead time relative to that during westerly QBO phases. These improvements in forecast skill result not just from the fact that forecasts initialized with stronger MJO events, such as occurs during QBO easterly phases, have greater skill, but also from the more persistent behaviour of the MJO for a similar initial amplitude during QBO easterly phases as compared to QBO westerly phases. The QBO is thus an untapped source of subseasonal predictability that can provide a window of opportunity for improved prediction of global climate. |
英文关键词 | MJO Madden-Julian oscillation QBO Quasi-biennial oscillation Subseasonal Forecast Predictability Prediction Boreal winter |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000407247200013 |
WOS关键词 | 50 MB ; WIND ; STRATOSPHERE ; TEMPERATURE ; PREDICTION ; CYCLE ; VARIABILITY ; CONVECTION ; HEMISPHERE ; FORECASTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35793 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Bur Meteorol, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 2.Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 3.Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Kashiwanoha, Japan; 4.Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Marshall, Andrew G.,Hendon, Harry H.,Son, Seok-Woo,et al. Impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49(4). |
APA | Marshall, Andrew G.,Hendon, Harry H.,Son, Seok-Woo,&Lim, Yuna.(2017).Impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49(4). |
MLA | Marshall, Andrew G.,et al."Impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden-Julian oscillation".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49.4(2017). |
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