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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3650-9 |
Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts | |
Shonk, Jonathan K. P.1; Guilyardi, Eric1,2; Toniazzo, Thomas3; Woolnough, Steven J.1; Stockdale, Tim4 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:939-954 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; France; Norway |
英文摘要 | The development of systematic biases in climate models used in operational seasonal forecasting adversely affects the quality of forecasts they produce. In this study, we examine the initial evolution of systematic biases in the ECMWF System 4 forecast model, and isolate aspects of the model simulations that lead to the development of these biases. We focus on the tendency of the simulated intertropical convergence zone in the western equatorial Pacific to drift northwards by between 0.5A degrees and 3A degrees of latitude depending on season. Comparing observations with both fully coupled atmosphere-ocean hindcasts and atmosphere-only hindcasts (driven by observed sea-surface temperatures), we show that the northward drift is caused by a cooling of the sea-surface temperature on the Equator. The cooling is associated with anomalous easterly wind stress and excessive evaporation during the first twenty days of hindcast, both of which occur whether air-sea interactions are permitted or not. The easterly wind bias develops immediately after initialisation throughout the lower troposphere; a westerly bias develops in the upper troposphere after about 10 days of hindcast. At this point, the baroclinic structure of the wind bias suggests coupling with errors in convective heating, although the initial wind bias is barotropic in structure and appears to have an alternative origin. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal forecasting Model drift Western Pacific ITCZ |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425328700012 |
WOS关键词 | COLD-TONGUE BIAS ; COUPLED OCEAN ; SEASONAL CYCLE ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; CLOUD BIASES ; MODEL ; SIMULATION ; IMPACT ; ERRORS ; PARAMETERIZATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36046 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England; 2.UPMC, LOCEAN, Paris, France; 3.Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Uni Res, Bergen, Norway; 4.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shonk, Jonathan K. P.,Guilyardi, Eric,Toniazzo, Thomas,et al. Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:939-954. |
APA | Shonk, Jonathan K. P.,Guilyardi, Eric,Toniazzo, Thomas,Woolnough, Steven J.,&Stockdale, Tim.(2018).Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,939-954. |
MLA | Shonk, Jonathan K. P.,et al."Identifying causes of Western Pacific ITCZ drift in ECMWF System 4 hindcasts".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):939-954. |
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