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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3187-3 |
Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models | |
Liu, Huafeng1; Tang, Youmin1,2; Chen, Dake1; Lian, Tao1 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Canada |
英文摘要 | In this study, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) predictability, measured by the Indian Dipole Mode Index (DMI), is comprehensively examined at the seasonal time scale, including its actual prediction skill and potential predictability, using the ENSEMBLES multiple model ensembles and the recently developed information-based theoretical framework of predictability. It was found that all model predictions have useful skill, which is normally defined by the anomaly correlation coefficient larger than 0.5, only at around 2-3 month leads. This is mainly because there are more false alarms in predictions as leading time increases. The DMI predictability has significant seasonal variation, and the predictions whose target seasons are boreal summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) are more reliable than that for other seasons. All of models fail to predict the IOD onset before May and suffer from the winter (DJF) predictability barrier. The potential predictability study indicates that, with the model development and initialization improvement, the prediction of IOD onset is likely to be improved but the winter barrier cannot be overcome. The IOD predictability also has decadal variation, with a high skill during the 1960s and the early 1990s, and a low skill during the early 1970s and early 1980s, which is very consistent with the potential predictability. The main factors controlling the IOD predictability, including its seasonal and decadal variations, are also analyzed in this study. |
英文关键词 | IOD Predictability Ensemble prediction |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395060900036 |
WOS关键词 | POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY ; EL-NINO ; PART I ; ENSO ; ENSEMBLE ; EVENTS ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTION ; FORECASTS ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36061 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Second Inst Oceanog, State Key Lab Satellite Ocean Environm Dynam, Hangzhou 310012, Zhejiang, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Northern British Columbia, Environm Sci & Engn, Prince George, BC V2N4Z9, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Huafeng,Tang, Youmin,Chen, Dake,et al. Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Liu, Huafeng,Tang, Youmin,Chen, Dake,&Lian, Tao.(2017).Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Liu, Huafeng,et al."Predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole in the coupled models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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