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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4188-1 |
Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches | |
Crimp, Steven1; Jin, Huidong2; Kokic, Philip1; Bakar, Shuvo2,4; Nicholls, Neville3 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:1247-1262 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | Anthropogenic climate change has already been shown to effect the frequency, intensity, spatial extent, duration and seasonality of extreme climate events. Understanding these changes is an important step in determining exposure, vulnerability and focus for adaptation. In an attempt to support adaptation decision-making we have examined statistical modelling techniques to improve the representation of global climate model (GCM) derived projections of minimum temperature extremes (frosts) in Australia. We examine the spatial changes in minimum temperature extreme metrics (e.g. monthly and seasonal frost frequency etc.), for a region exhibiting the strongest station trends in Australia, and compare these changes with minimum temperature extreme metrics derived from 10 GCMs, from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) datasets, and via statistical downscaling. We compare the observed trends with those derived from the raw GCM minimum temperature data as well as examine whether quantile matching (QM) or spatio-temporal (spTimerQM) modelling with Quantile Matching can be used to improve the correlation between observed and simulated extreme minimum temperatures. We demonstrate, that the spTimerQM modelling approach provides correlations with observed daily minimum temperatures for the period August to November of 0.22. This represents an almost fourfold improvement over either the raw GCM or QM results. The spTimerQM modelling approach also improves correlations with observed monthly frost frequency statistics to 0.84 as opposed to 0.37 and 0.81 for the raw GCM and QM results respectively. We apply the spatio-temporal model to examine future extreme minimum temperature projections for the period 2016 to 2048. The spTimerQM modelling results suggest the persistence of current levels of frost risk out to 2030, with the evidence of continuing decadal variation. |
英文关键词 | Frost Daily minimum temperatures Spatio-temporal modelling Quantile matching Future projections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000460619200069 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ; EXTREMES INDEXES ; CMIP5 MODELS ; PRECIPITATION ; ENSEMBLE ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; BOOTSTRAP ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36072 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Australian Natl Univ, Climate Change Inst, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; 2.CSIRO DATA61, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 3.Monash Univ, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 4.Australian Natl Univ, CSR&M, Canberra, ACT, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Crimp, Steven,Jin, Huidong,Kokic, Philip,et al. Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:1247-1262. |
APA | Crimp, Steven,Jin, Huidong,Kokic, Philip,Bakar, Shuvo,&Nicholls, Neville.(2019).Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,1247-1262. |
MLA | Crimp, Steven,et al."Possible future changes in South East Australian frost frequency: an inter-comparison of statistical downscaling approaches".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):1247-1262. |
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