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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3730-x |
Consideration of land-use and land-cover changes in the projection of climate extremes over North America by the end of the twenty-first century | |
Alexandru, Adelina | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:1949-1973 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Changes in the essential climate extremes indices and surface variables for the end of the twenty-first century are assessed in this study based on two transient climate change simulations, with and without land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), but identical atmospheric forcing. The two simulations are performed with the 5th generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the Canadian Earth System Model for the (2006-2100)-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. For the simulation with LULCC, land-cover data sets are taken from the global change assessment model (GCAM) representing the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2006-2100. LULCC in RCP4.5 scenario suggest significant reduction in cultivated land (e.g. Canadian Prairies and Mississippi basin) due to afforestation. CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming by the end of the twenty-first century, especially over the northern regions in winter. CRCM5 projects more warm spell-days per year over most areas of the continent, and implicitly more summer days and tropical nights at the expense of cold-spell, frost and ice days whose number is projected to decrease by up to 40% by the end of the twenty-first century with respect to the baseline period 1971-2000. Most land areas north of 45A degrees N, in all seasons, as well as the southeastern United States in summer, exhibit increases in mean precipitation under the RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, central parts of the continent in summer and much of Mexico in all seasons show reduced precipitation. In addition, large areas of North America exhibit changes of 10 to 40% (depending on the season and geographical location) in the number of heavy precipitation days. Results also suggest that the biogeophysical effects of LULCC on climate, assessed through differences between the two simulations, lead to warmer regional climates, especially in winter. The investigation of processes leading to this response shows high sensitivity of the results to changes in albedo as a response to LULCC. Overall, at the seasonal scale, results show that intense afforestation may contribute to an additional 25% of projected changes. |
英文关键词 | Regional climate modelling CRCM5 North America Land-use and land-cover change Climate change projections Climate extremes indices |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000426707100027 |
WOS关键词 | GLOBAL VEGETATION MODEL ; MULTISCALE GEM MODEL ; SCALE DEFORESTATION ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION ; AIR-TEMPERATURE ; BOUNDARY-LAYER ; SYSTEM MODEL ; PART III ; PARAMETERIZATION ; AFFORESTATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36090 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Quebec Montreal, Ctr ESCER, Dept Sci Terre & Atmosphere, CP 8888,Succ Ctr Ville, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alexandru, Adelina. Consideration of land-use and land-cover changes in the projection of climate extremes over North America by the end of the twenty-first century[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:1949-1973. |
APA | Alexandru, Adelina.(2018).Consideration of land-use and land-cover changes in the projection of climate extremes over North America by the end of the twenty-first century.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,1949-1973. |
MLA | Alexandru, Adelina."Consideration of land-use and land-cover changes in the projection of climate extremes over North America by the end of the twenty-first century".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):1949-1973. |
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