GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4084-8
Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS
Arora, Anika; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Pillai, Prasanth; Dhakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Srivastava, Ankur
2018-11-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2018
卷号51页码:3389-3403
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家India
英文摘要

The effect of increasing atmospheric resolution on prediction skill of El Nino southern oscillation phenomenon in climate forecast system model is explored in this paper. Improvement in prediction skill for sea surface temperature (SST) and winds at all leads compared to low resolution model in the tropical Indo-Pacific basin is observed. High resolution model is able to capture extreme events reasonably well. As a result, the signal to noise ratio is improved in the high resolution model. However, spring predictability barrier (SPB) for summer months in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 region is stronger in high resolution model, in spite of improvement in overall prediction skill and dynamics everywhere else. Anomaly correlation coefficient of SST in high resolution model with observations in Nino 3.4 region targeting boreal summer months when predicted at lead times of 3-8 months in advance decreased compared its lower resolution counterpart. It is noted that higher variance of winds predicted in spring season over central equatorial Pacific compared to observed variance of winds results in stronger than normal response on subsurface ocean, hence increases SPB for boreal summer months in high resolution model.


英文关键词Spring predictability barrier ENSO Horizontal resolution CFS
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000447366100012
WOS关键词NINO SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EL-NINO ; ENSO PREDICTABILITY ; ATMOSPHERE MODEL ; VERSION 2 ; SYSTEM ; FORECASTS ; ENSEMBLE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36154
专题气候变化
作者单位Monsoon Mission, Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Dr Homi Bhabha Rd, Pune 411008, Maharashtra, India
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Arora, Anika,Rao, Suryachandra A.,Pillai, Prasanth,et al. Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:3389-3403.
APA Arora, Anika,Rao, Suryachandra A.,Pillai, Prasanth,Dhakate, Ashish,Salunke, Kiran,&Srivastava, Ankur.(2018).Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,3389-3403.
MLA Arora, Anika,et al."Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):3389-3403.
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