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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4084-8 |
Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS | |
Arora, Anika; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Pillai, Prasanth; Dhakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Srivastava, Ankur | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:3389-3403 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India |
英文摘要 | The effect of increasing atmospheric resolution on prediction skill of El Nino southern oscillation phenomenon in climate forecast system model is explored in this paper. Improvement in prediction skill for sea surface temperature (SST) and winds at all leads compared to low resolution model in the tropical Indo-Pacific basin is observed. High resolution model is able to capture extreme events reasonably well. As a result, the signal to noise ratio is improved in the high resolution model. However, spring predictability barrier (SPB) for summer months in Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 region is stronger in high resolution model, in spite of improvement in overall prediction skill and dynamics everywhere else. Anomaly correlation coefficient of SST in high resolution model with observations in Nino 3.4 region targeting boreal summer months when predicted at lead times of 3-8 months in advance decreased compared its lower resolution counterpart. It is noted that higher variance of winds predicted in spring season over central equatorial Pacific compared to observed variance of winds results in stronger than normal response on subsurface ocean, hence increases SPB for boreal summer months in high resolution model. |
英文关键词 | Spring predictability barrier ENSO Horizontal resolution CFS |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447366100012 |
WOS关键词 | NINO SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EL-NINO ; ENSO PREDICTABILITY ; ATMOSPHERE MODEL ; VERSION 2 ; SYSTEM ; FORECASTS ; ENSEMBLE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36154 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Monsoon Mission, Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Dr Homi Bhabha Rd, Pune 411008, Maharashtra, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Arora, Anika,Rao, Suryachandra A.,Pillai, Prasanth,et al. Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:3389-3403. |
APA | Arora, Anika,Rao, Suryachandra A.,Pillai, Prasanth,Dhakate, Ashish,Salunke, Kiran,&Srivastava, Ankur.(2018).Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,3389-3403. |
MLA | Arora, Anika,et al."Assessment of prediction skill in equatorial Pacific Ocean in high resolution model of CFS".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):3389-3403. |
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