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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3789-4 |
Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate | |
Choudhary, A.; Dimri, A. P. | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:3009-3030 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India |
英文摘要 | Precipitation is one of the important climatic indicators in the global climate system. Probable changes in monsoonal (June, July, August and September; hereafter JJAS) mean precipitation in the Himalayan region for three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (i.e. representative concentration pathways or RCPs) and two future time slices (near and far) are estimated from a set of regional climate simulations performed under Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-South Asia (CORDEX-SA) project. For each of the CORDEX-SA simulations and their ensemble, projections of near future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099) precipitation climatology with respect to corresponding present climate (1970-2005) over Himalayan region are presented. The variability existing over each of the future time slices is compared with the present climate variability to determine the future changes in inter annual fluctuations of monsoonal mean precipitation. The long-term (1970-2099) trend (mm/day/year) of monsoonal mean precipitation spatially distributed as well as averaged over Himalayan region is analyzed to detect any change across twenty-first century as well as to assess model uncertainty in simulating the precipitation changes over this period. The altitudinal distribution of difference in trend of future precipitation from present climate existing over each of the time slices is also studied to understand any elevation dependency of change in precipitation pattern. Except for a part of the Hindu-Kush area in western Himalayan region which shows drier condition, the CORDEX-SA experiments project in general wetter/drier conditions in near future for western/eastern Himalayan region, a scenario which gets further intensified in far future. Although, a gradually increasing precipitation trend is seen throughout the twenty-first century in carbon intensive scenarios, the distribution of trend with elevation presents a very complex picture with lower elevations showing a greater trend in far-future under RCP8.5 when compared with higher elevations. |
英文关键词 | Monsoonal Precipitation RCPs Himalayan region CORDEX-SA Precipitation change Projections Climatology Trend Uncertainty |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428600200040 |
WOS关键词 | INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; ELEVATION DEPENDENCY ; SPATIAL-DISTRIBUTION ; CMIP5 SIMULATIONS ; MODEL DESCRIPTION ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; DENSE NETWORK ; TRENDS ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36167 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Environm Sci, New Delhi 110067, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Choudhary, A.,Dimri, A. P.. Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:3009-3030. |
APA | Choudhary, A.,&Dimri, A. P..(2018).Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,3009-3030. |
MLA | Choudhary, A.,et al."Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):3009-3030. |
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