Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3361-7 |
Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones | |
Sugi, Masato1; Murakami, Hiroyuki1,2; Yoshida, Kohei1 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan; USA |
英文摘要 | Recent modeling studies have consistently shown that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will decrease but that of very intense tropical cyclones may increase in the future warmer climate. It has been noted, however, that the uncertainty in the projected changes in the frequency of very intense tropical cyclones, particularly the changes in the regional frequency, is very large. Here we present a projection of the changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones estimated by a statistical downscaling of ensemble of many high-resolution global model experiments. The results indicate that the changes in the frequency of very intense (category 4 and 5) tropical cyclones are not uniform on the globe. The frequency will increase in most regions but decrease in the south western part of Northwest Pacific, the South Pacific, and eastern part of the South Indian Ocean. |
英文关键词 | Intense tropical cyclones Climate change Ensemble high-resolution global models Statistical downscaling Intensity bias correction |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000403716500035 |
WOS关键词 | HURRICANES ; ENSEMBLE ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36181 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Meteorol Res Inst, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 2.Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sugi, Masato,Murakami, Hiroyuki,Yoshida, Kohei. Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49. |
APA | Sugi, Masato,Murakami, Hiroyuki,&Yoshida, Kohei.(2017).Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49. |
MLA | Sugi, Masato,et al."Projection of future changes in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017). |
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