资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Water budgets in tropical cyclones (TCs) are computed in the ERA-interim (ERAI) re-analysis and the CNRM-CM5 model for the late 20th and 21st centuries. At a 6-hourly timescale and averaged over a 5 box around a TC center, the main contribution to rainfall is moisture convergence, with decreasing contribution of evaporation for increasing rainfall intensities. It is found that TC rainfall in ERAI and the model are underestimated when compared with the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM), probably due to underestimated TC winds in ERAI vs. observed TCs. It is also found that relative increase in TC rainfall between the second half of the 20th and 21st centuries may surpass the rate of change suggested by the Clausius-Clapeyron formula. It may even reach twice this rate for reduced spatial domains corresponding to the highest cyclonic rainfall. This is in agreement with an expected positive feedback between TC rainfall intensity and dynamics.