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DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3
Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season
Abhilash, S.1; Mandal, R.1; Dey, A.1; Phani, R.1; Joseph, S.1; Chattopadhyay, R.1; De, S.1; Agarwal, N. K.1; Sahai, A. K.1; Devi, S. Sunitha2; Rajeevan, M.3
2018-11-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2018
卷号51页码:3435-3446
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家India
英文摘要

Indian summer monsoon of 2015 was deficient with prominence of short-lived (long-lived) active (break) spells. The real-time extended range forecasts disseminated by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology using an indigenous ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on National Center for Environmental Predictions's climate forecast system could broadly predict these intraseasonal fluctuations at shorter time leads (i.e. up to 10 days), but failed to predict at longer leads (15-20 days). Considering the multi-scale nature of Indian Summer Monsoon system, this particular study aims to examine the inability of the EPS in predicting the active/break episodes at longer leads from the perspective of non-linear scale interaction between the synoptic, intraseasonal and seasonal scale. It is found that the 2015 monsoon season was dominated by synoptic scale disturbances that can hinder the prediction on extended range. Further, the interaction between synoptic scale disturbances and low frequency mode was prominent during the season, which might have contributed to the reduced prediction skill at longer leads.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000447366100015
WOS关键词INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ; POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY ; EL-NINO ; VARIABILITY ; SYSTEM ; PERFORMANCE ; ANOMALIES ; MODELS ; SPELLS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36270
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Dr Homi Bhabha Rd, Pune 411008, Maharashtra, India;
2.Indian Meteorol Dept, Pune, Maharashtra, India;
3.Govt India, MoES, New Delhi, India
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Abhilash, S.,Mandal, R.,Dey, A.,et al. Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:3435-3446.
APA Abhilash, S..,Mandal, R..,Dey, A..,Phani, R..,Joseph, S..,...&Rajeevan, M..(2018).Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,3435-3446.
MLA Abhilash, S.,et al."Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):3435-3446.
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