Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3 |
Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season | |
Abhilash, S.1; Mandal, R.1; Dey, A.1; Phani, R.1; Joseph, S.1; Chattopadhyay, R.1; De, S.1; Agarwal, N. K.1; Sahai, A. K.1; Devi, S. Sunitha2; Rajeevan, M.3 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
![]() |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:3435-3446 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | India |
英文摘要 | Indian summer monsoon of 2015 was deficient with prominence of short-lived (long-lived) active (break) spells. The real-time extended range forecasts disseminated by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology using an indigenous ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on National Center for Environmental Predictions's climate forecast system could broadly predict these intraseasonal fluctuations at shorter time leads (i.e. up to 10 days), but failed to predict at longer leads (15-20 days). Considering the multi-scale nature of Indian Summer Monsoon system, this particular study aims to examine the inability of the EPS in predicting the active/break episodes at longer leads from the perspective of non-linear scale interaction between the synoptic, intraseasonal and seasonal scale. It is found that the 2015 monsoon season was dominated by synoptic scale disturbances that can hinder the prediction on extended range. Further, the interaction between synoptic scale disturbances and low frequency mode was prominent during the season, which might have contributed to the reduced prediction skill at longer leads. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447366100015 |
WOS关键词 | INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ; POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY ; EL-NINO ; VARIABILITY ; SYSTEM ; PERFORMANCE ; ANOMALIES ; MODELS ; SPELLS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36270 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Indian Inst Trop Meteorol, Dr Homi Bhabha Rd, Pune 411008, Maharashtra, India; 2.Indian Meteorol Dept, Pune, Maharashtra, India; 3.Govt India, MoES, New Delhi, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Abhilash, S.,Mandal, R.,Dey, A.,et al. Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:3435-3446. |
APA | Abhilash, S..,Mandal, R..,Dey, A..,Phani, R..,Joseph, S..,...&Rajeevan, M..(2018).Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,3435-3446. |
MLA | Abhilash, S.,et al."Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):3435-3446. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论