Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3623-z |
Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM | |
Huang, Jinlong1,4; Zhai, Jianqing2,3; Jiang, Tong2,3; Wang, Yanjun2; Li, Xiucang2,3; Wang, Run5; Xiong, Ming6; Su, Buda1,2,3; Fischer, Thomas3,7 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:507-525 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Germany |
英文摘要 | In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at regional and local scale, especially in the south of China. |
英文关键词 | Drought Intensity Area Duration CCLM China |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000422908700032 |
WOS关键词 | ZHUJIANG RIVER-BASIN ; TEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; SOUTH CHINA ; PRECIPITATION ; PROJECTIONS ; TRENDS ; TEMPERATURE ; EVENTS ; CMIP5 ; RESOLUTION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36290 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Sch Remote Sensing, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 5.Hubei Univ, Fac Resources & Environm, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China; 6.Changjiang Water Resources Commiss, Bur Hydrol, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China; 7.Eberhard Karls Univ Tubingen, Dept Geosci, Tubingen, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huang, Jinlong,Zhai, Jianqing,Jiang, Tong,et al. Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:507-525. |
APA | Huang, Jinlong.,Zhai, Jianqing.,Jiang, Tong.,Wang, Yanjun.,Li, Xiucang.,...&Fischer, Thomas.(2018).Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,507-525. |
MLA | Huang, Jinlong,et al."Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):507-525. |
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