Prediction of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific and its connection to ENSO in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME)

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3973-6

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1007/s00382-017-3973-6
	Prediction of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific and its connection to ENSO in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME)
	Zhou, Yang; Kim, Hye-Mi
	2018-09-01
发表期刊	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN	0930-7575
EISSN	1432-0894
出版年	2018
卷号	51 页码:1623-1637
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
英文摘要	Prediction skills of the wintertime atmospheric rivers (ARs) and moisture flux over the Northeast Pacific in response to El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing are evaluated from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) hindcasts (CFSv2, CCSM4, CanCM3, CanCM4, GEOS5, and GFDL CM2.1). The skill is estimated for the active AR season, December-February (DJF) with initial conditions around early November. Models underestimate the climatological moisture flux to different extents corresponding with various climatological biases in predictions of sea surface temperature (SST) and large-scale atmospheric circulation fields. The anomalous moisture flux and AR frequency over the Northeast Pacific are predicted in the models but in weaker amplitude than the reanalysis. Significant regional biases are shown in the anomalous landfalling AR frequency corresponding with ENSO, underlining the challenge in regional precipitation forecasts.
领域	气候变化
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000442433200002
WOS关键词	WEST-COAST ; DATA ASSIMILATION ; EL-NINO ; ASYMMETRY ; PRECIPITATION ; FORECASTS ; ALGORITHM ; TRANSPORT ; LANDFALL ; SKILL
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36324
专题	气候变化
作者单位	SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou, Yang,Kim, Hye-Mi. Prediction of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific and its connection to ENSO in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME)[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:1623-1637.
APA	Zhou, Yang,&Kim, Hye-Mi.(2018).Prediction of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific and its connection to ENSO in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME).CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,1623-1637.
MLA	Zhou, Yang,et al."Prediction of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific and its connection to ENSO in the North American multi-model ensemble (NMME)".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):1623-1637.