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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3246-9 |
Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns | |
Tan, Xuezhi1,2; Gan, Thian Yew1 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | In recent years, because the frequency and severity of floods have increased across Canada, it is important to understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation. Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stations of Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariates that represent large-scale climate patterns such as El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parameters of GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show that GEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastal regions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poisson regressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitation events in Canada are related to large-scale climate patterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationary GEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GP distributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitation of Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt and slowly varying changes) likely because of the influence of large-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastal regions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Nio than in La Nia years, while AMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in El Nio than in La Nia years. The influence of ENSO on heavy precipitation was spatially consistent but stronger than on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extreme precipitation is also statistically significant at some stations across Canada. |
英文关键词 | Canadian extreme precipitation Non-stationary probability distributions Poisson regression Climate indices Trend El Nino Southern Oscillation Large-scale climate patterns |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000399431900011 |
WOS关键词 | PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION ; CENTRAL UNITED-STATES ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SEASONAL PRECIPITATION ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; TEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; TRENDS ; 20TH-CENTURY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36422 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB T6G 2W2, Canada; 2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tan, Xuezhi,Gan, Thian Yew. Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Tan, Xuezhi,&Gan, Thian Yew.(2017).Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Tan, Xuezhi,et al."Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
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