GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3246-9
Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns
Tan, Xuezhi1,2; Gan, Thian Yew1
2017-05-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号48
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Canada; Peoples R China
英文摘要

In recent years, because the frequency and severity of floods have increased across Canada, it is important to understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation. Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stations of Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariates that represent large-scale climate patterns such as El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parameters of GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show that GEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastal regions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poisson regressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitation events in Canada are related to large-scale climate patterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationary GEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GP distributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitation of Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt and slowly varying changes) likely because of the influence of large-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastal regions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Nio than in La Nia years, while AMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in El Nio than in La Nia years. The influence of ENSO on heavy precipitation was spatially consistent but stronger than on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extreme precipitation is also statistically significant at some stations across Canada.


英文关键词Canadian extreme precipitation Non-stationary probability distributions Poisson regression Climate indices Trend El Nino Southern Oscillation Large-scale climate patterns
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000399431900011
WOS关键词PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION ; CENTRAL UNITED-STATES ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SEASONAL PRECIPITATION ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; TEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; TRENDS ; 20TH-CENTURY
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36422
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB T6G 2W2, Canada;
2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Tan, Xuezhi,Gan, Thian Yew. Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48.
APA Tan, Xuezhi,&Gan, Thian Yew.(2017).Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48.
MLA Tan, Xuezhi,et al."Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017).
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