Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3060-4 |
Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts | |
Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Jha, Bhaskar; Peng, Peitao | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Based on hindcasts of seasonal forecast systems participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, the seasonal dependence of predictability of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was estimated. The results were consistent with earlier analyses in that the predictability of ENSO was highest in winter and lowest in spring and summer. Further, predictability as measured by the relative amplitude of predictable and unpredictable components was dominated by the ensemble mean instead of the spread (or dispersion) among ensemble members. This result was consistent with previous analysis that most of ENSO predictability resides in the shift of the probability density function (PDF) of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (i.e., changes in the first moment of the PDF that is associated with the ensemble mean of ENSO SST anomalies) rather than due to changes in the spread of the PDF. The analysis establishes our current best estimate of ENSO predictability that can serve as a benchmark for quantifying further improvements resulting from advances in observing, assimilation, and seasonal prediction systems. |
英文关键词 | ENSO Predictability estimation Multi-model hindcasts NMME |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000392307300003 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; PREDICTION SKILL ; EL-NINO ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SEASONAL PREDICTION ; VERSION 2 ; VARIABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; MODEL ; OCEAN |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36563 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | NCEP NWS NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, 5830 Univ Res Court, College Pk, MD 20740 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kumar, Arun,Hu, Zeng-Zhen,Jha, Bhaskar,et al. Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Kumar, Arun,Hu, Zeng-Zhen,Jha, Bhaskar,&Peng, Peitao.(2017).Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Kumar, Arun,et al."Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
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