GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3060-4
Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts
Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Jha, Bhaskar; Peng, Peitao
2017
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号48
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Based on hindcasts of seasonal forecast systems participating in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, the seasonal dependence of predictability of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was estimated. The results were consistent with earlier analyses in that the predictability of ENSO was highest in winter and lowest in spring and summer. Further, predictability as measured by the relative amplitude of predictable and unpredictable components was dominated by the ensemble mean instead of the spread (or dispersion) among ensemble members. This result was consistent with previous analysis that most of ENSO predictability resides in the shift of the probability density function (PDF) of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (i.e., changes in the first moment of the PDF that is associated with the ensemble mean of ENSO SST anomalies) rather than due to changes in the spread of the PDF. The analysis establishes our current best estimate of ENSO predictability that can serve as a benchmark for quantifying further improvements resulting from advances in observing, assimilation, and seasonal prediction systems.


英文关键词ENSO Predictability estimation Multi-model hindcasts NMME
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000392307300003
WOS关键词CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; PREDICTION SKILL ; EL-NINO ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; SEASONAL PREDICTION ; VERSION 2 ; VARIABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; MODEL ; OCEAN
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36563
专题气候变化
作者单位NCEP NWS NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, 5830 Univ Res Court, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
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Kumar, Arun,Hu, Zeng-Zhen,Jha, Bhaskar,et al. Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48.
APA Kumar, Arun,Hu, Zeng-Zhen,Jha, Bhaskar,&Peng, Peitao.(2017).Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48.
MLA Kumar, Arun,et al."Estimating ENSO predictability based on multi-model hindcasts".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017).
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