Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.4830 |
Seasonal predictive skill of intraseasonal synoptic type variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa by making use of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System 5 | |
Engelbrecht, Christien J.1,2; Landman, Willem A.2,3; Graham, Richard4; McLean, Peter4 | |
2017-03-30 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
![]() |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Africa; England |
英文摘要 | The skill in predicting intraseasonal characteristics of synoptic type occurrences at the seasonal time scale over the all-year rainfall region of South Africa (35 degrees-33 degrees S and 21 degrees-27 degrees E) is assessed by utilizing an ensemble of simulations performed using the GloSea5 coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Hindcasts of daily sea-level pressure fields of 14 austral spring [September-October-November (SON)] and summer [December-January-February (DJF)] seasons, initialized in August and November, respectively, are analysed. The skill assessment is achieved through the use of self-organizing maps. Deterministic and probabilistic assessment of synoptic type frequency forecasts indicate that intraseasonal circulation variability over the Cape south coast region is marginally predictable at seasonal time scales, more so during SON than DJF. In particular, the results obtained demonstrate that there is potential for the skillful seasonal prediction of the anomalous frequency of occurrence of high-impact rainfall events associated with cut-off lows within SON seasons. |
英文关键词 | Cape south coast South Africa synoptic types predictive skill |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000397497700024 |
WOS关键词 | RAINFALL CHARACTERISTICS ; SUMMER RAINFALL ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE FORECASTS ; MODEL OUTPUT ; RECALIBRATION ; SIMULATIONS ; CIRCULATION ; REGION ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36594 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Agr Res Council, Inst Soil Climate & Water, Belvedere St 600, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa; 2.Univ Pretoria, Dept Geog Geoinformat & Meteorol, Pretoria, South Africa; 3.CSIR Nat Resources & Environm, Climate Studies Modelling & Environm Hlth, Pretoria, South Africa; 4.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Engelbrecht, Christien J.,Landman, Willem A.,Graham, Richard,et al. Seasonal predictive skill of intraseasonal synoptic type variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa by making use of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System 5[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(4). |
APA | Engelbrecht, Christien J.,Landman, Willem A.,Graham, Richard,&McLean, Peter.(2017).Seasonal predictive skill of intraseasonal synoptic type variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa by making use of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System 5.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(4). |
MLA | Engelbrecht, Christien J.,et al."Seasonal predictive skill of intraseasonal synoptic type variability over the Cape south coast of South Africa by making use of the Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System 5".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.4(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论