Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5393 |
Estimating uncertainty associated with the standardized precipitation index | |
Carbone, Gregory J.1; Lu, Junyu1; Brunetti, Michele2 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38页码:E607-E616 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Italy |
英文摘要 | We investigate methodological uncertainties associated with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) that result from limited record length, trends, and outliers. We use long, homogenous records from 14 Italian stations to investigate how specific features in the precipitation record affect construction of an underlying gamma probability function. We apply a resampling scheme to the long records in order to estimate confidence intervals associated with a range of precipitation characteristics. Stability in parameter estimation increases nonlinearly as record length increases. The resulting SPI estimates for 30-year reference periods have considerably more uncertainty than those made from 60-year records. In general, increasing record length beyond 60-years has limited benefits and, in the presence of a trend, may increase uncertainty. Extreme events also have significant influence on SPI estimates, even for records exceeding 60 years. Despite using stations from different geographic regions, each with unique precipitation characteristics, we find consistent confidence interval estimates across stations. These confidence intervals can be applied to specific time series to identify how trends, changes in variability, and outliers during a particular reference period influence SPI values. |
英文关键词 | precipitation drought SPI confidence intervals uncertainty record length bootstrapping |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000431999600041 |
WOS关键词 | TIME-SCALES ; DROUGHT ; SPI ; SERIES ; VARIABILITY ; INDICATORS ; PREDICTION ; ALGORITHM ; EUROPE ; RISK |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36634 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ South Carolina, Dept Geog, Carolinas Integrated Sci & Assessments, 514 Main St, Columbia, SC 29208 USA; 2.CNR, Ist Sci Atmosfera & Clima, Bologna, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Carbone, Gregory J.,Lu, Junyu,Brunetti, Michele. Estimating uncertainty associated with the standardized precipitation index[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38:E607-E616. |
APA | Carbone, Gregory J.,Lu, Junyu,&Brunetti, Michele.(2018).Estimating uncertainty associated with the standardized precipitation index.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38,E607-E616. |
MLA | Carbone, Gregory J.,et al."Estimating uncertainty associated with the standardized precipitation index".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38(2018):E607-E616. |
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