GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5491
Development of a time-varying downscaling model considering non-stationarity using a Bayesian approach
Pichuka, Subbarao; Maity, Rajib
2018-06-15
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38期号:7页码:3157-3176
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家India
英文摘要

Stationarity in the relationship between causal variables and target variables is the fundamental assumption of statistical downscaling models. However, we hypothesize that this assumption may not be valid in a changing climate. This study develops a downscaling technique in which the relationship between causal and target variables is considered to be time-varying rather than static. The proposed time-varying downscaling model (TVDM) is utilized to downscale monthly precipitation over India to 0.25 x 0.25 degrees gridded scale using the large-scale outputs from multiple general circulation models (GCMs), namely the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), coupled Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Earth System model (HadGEM2-ES) and Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2). Observed precipitation data are obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune. For future projection, the temporal evolution of each of the TVDM parameters is investigated using its deterministic (trend and periodicity) and stochastic components. TVDM is found to outperform the most commonly used statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and regional climate model (RCM) output at all the locations. The Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) precipitation data (RCM outputs) are obtained from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) data portal supplied by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune. The proposed model (TVDM) differs from the existing stationarity assumption-based approaches in updating the relationship between causal and target variables over time. It is understood that parameter uncertainty is the major issue in consideration of non-stationarity. Still, the TVDM is found to be very useful in the context of climate change due to its time-varying component.


英文关键词climate change downscaling non-stationarity precipitation time-varying downscaling model
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000439792300018
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DAILY PRECIPITATION ; MEDITERRANEAN AREA ; STATISTICAL-MODEL ; NONSTATIONARY ; RAINFALL ; 20TH-CENTURY ; SIMULATIONS ; CIRCULATION ; VALIDATION
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36708
专题气候变化
作者单位Indian Inst Technol Kharagpur, Dept Civil Engn, Kharagpur 721302, W Bengal, India
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Pichuka, Subbarao,Maity, Rajib. Development of a time-varying downscaling model considering non-stationarity using a Bayesian approach[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(7):3157-3176.
APA Pichuka, Subbarao,&Maity, Rajib.(2018).Development of a time-varying downscaling model considering non-stationarity using a Bayesian approach.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(7),3157-3176.
MLA Pichuka, Subbarao,et al."Development of a time-varying downscaling model considering non-stationarity using a Bayesian approach".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.7(2018):3157-3176.
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