GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5217
1961-1990 high-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies for Italy
Crespi, A.1; Brunetti, M.2; Lentini, G.1,3; Maugeri, M.1,2
2018-02-01
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38期号:2页码:878-895
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Italy
英文摘要

High-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies for Italy are presented. They are based on 1961-1990 precipitation normals obtained from a quality-controlled dataset of 6134 stations covering the Italian territory and part of the Northern neighbouring regions. The climatologies are computed by means of two interpolation methods modelling the precipitation-elevation relationship at a local level, more precisely a local weighted linear regression (LWLR) and a local regression kriging (RK) are performed. For both methods, local optimisations are also applied in order to improve model performance. Model results are compared with those provided by two other widely used interpolation methods which do not consider elevation in modelling precipitation distribution: ordinary kriging and inverse distance weighting. Even though all the four models produce quite reasonable results, LWLR and RK show the best agreement with the observed station normals and leave-one-out-estimated mean absolute errors ranging from 5.1mm (July) to 11mm (November) for both models. Their better performances are even clearer when specific clusters of stations (e.g. high-elevation sites) are considered. Even though LWLR and RK provide very similar results both at station and at grid point level, they show some peculiar features. In particular, LWLR is found to have a better extrapolation ability at high-elevation sites when data density is high enough, while RK is more robust in performing extrapolation over areas with complex orography and scarce data coverage, where LWLR may provide unrealistic precipitation values. However, by means of prediction intervals, LWLR provides a more straightforward approach to quantify the model uncertainty at any point of the study domain, which helps to identify the areas mainly affected by model instability. LWLR and RK high-resolution climatologies exhibit a very heterogeneous and seasonal-dependent precipitation distribution throughout the domain and allow to identify the main climatic zones of Italy.


英文关键词high-resolution climatology precipitation Italy interpolation methods
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000423816900026
WOS关键词SPATIAL INTERPOLATION ; MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ; TIME-SERIES ; TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE ; RAINFALL ; ALPS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36716
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Milan, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Milan, Italy;
2.CNR, Ist Sci Atmosfera & Clima, Bologna, Italy;
3.Politecn Milan, Poliedra, Milan, Italy
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GB/T 7714
Crespi, A.,Brunetti, M.,Lentini, G.,et al. 1961-1990 high-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies for Italy[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(2):878-895.
APA Crespi, A.,Brunetti, M.,Lentini, G.,&Maugeri, M..(2018).1961-1990 high-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies for Italy.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(2),878-895.
MLA Crespi, A.,et al."1961-1990 high-resolution monthly precipitation climatologies for Italy".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.2(2018):878-895.
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