GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5561
Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models
Carrillo, Carlos M.1,2; Castro, Christopher L.1; Garfin, Gregg3; Chang, Hsin-I1; Bukovsky, Melissa S.4; Mearns, Linda O.4
2018-09-01
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38期号:11页码:4189-4210
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Climate inter-annual variability over the North American monsoon (NAM) region is associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal variability (PDV), which drive a warm season atmospheric teleconnection response. Using the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations, previous studies have found that regional models forced with an atmospheric reanalysis (NARCCAP Phase I) represent the NAM reasonably well as a climatological feature. However, when these same regional models are forced with global climate model projections (NARCCAP Phase II), their ability to represent the NAM as a salient feature substantially degrades. The present study evaluates NAM inter-annual climate variability through the continental-scale patterns of summer precipitation within the NARCCAP simulations (Phases I and II), in relation to ENSO-PDV, and the presence of the driving atmospheric teleconnection response. Multivariate statistical analyses are applied to sea surface temperature and precipitation data sets to determine dominant variability at continental scale, with focus on the southwest. The analysis reveals that NARCCAP Phase I simulations are able to portray the spatial pattern of precipitation associated with ENSO-PDV in a similar way to observations. However, all NARCCAP Phase II simulations, with the exception of the HRM(Hadcm3) regional-global model pair, fail to reproduce this climate variability. Although including all possible NARCCAP model simulations to generate a multi-model ensemble mean would increase the statistical degree of confidence in climate projections, this type of result would not increase confidence in the physical climatology of model representations of warm season climate variability. More physically based, process-oriented metrics are needed to evaluate model quality in assessing the uncertainty of future climate change in multi-model ensemble products used for climate change impacts assessments.


英文关键词ENSO-PDV MTM-SVD NAM NARCCAP
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000443683600011
WOS关键词OBSERVATIONAL RECORD ; UNITED-STATES ; TIME-SERIES ; SYSTEM RAMS ; PART II ; VARIABILITY ; CMIP5 ; SIMULATIONS ; PROJECTIONS ; FORECAST
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:4[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36940
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Arizona, Dept Atmospher Sci, Phys & Atmospher Sci Bldg,Rm 536, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA;
2.Cornell Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Ithaca, NY USA;
3.Univ Arizona, Inst Environm, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Tucson, AZ USA;
4.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
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Carrillo, Carlos M.,Castro, Christopher L.,Garfin, Gregg,et al. Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(11):4189-4210.
APA Carrillo, Carlos M.,Castro, Christopher L.,Garfin, Gregg,Chang, Hsin-I,Bukovsky, Melissa S.,&Mearns, Linda O..(2018).Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(11),4189-4210.
MLA Carrillo, Carlos M.,et al."Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.11(2018):4189-4210.
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