Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5505 |
Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees C global warming above the pre-industrial level | |
Montroull, Natalia B.; Saurral, Ramiro I.; Camilloni, Ines A. | |
2018-06-30 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 38期号:8页码:3355-3368 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Argentina |
英文摘要 | The assessment of regional climate and hydrological impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase became vital to guide decision makers and water management planners after the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. With current emission trends close to a pathway of 3 degrees C warming by the end of the present century, this study investigates the projected regional hydrology impacts over La Plata basin (LPB) for the warming thresholds of 1.5 and 2 degrees C established in Paris and for 3 degrees C above the pre-industrial level. We also explore the consequences from following a medium or high-emission representative concentration pathway (RCP) to achieve the different warming targets. In order to determine the possible changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharges, we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)-distributed hydrology model in combination of bias-corrected GCM outputs from the Inter-Sectorial Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2a (ISIMIP). Because the behaviour of the hydrometeorological variables is not homogeneous over LPB, we analysed impacts of the different changes in mean global temperature and RCPs over four sub-basins: Paraguay, Parana, Iguazu and Uruguay. Overall, most of the changes over the sub-basins suggest moister conditions with increasing temperatures. The comparison of the RCPs indicates that increases in precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff would be larger under the medium-emission scenario. When the different responses of the various components of the terrestrial water cycle were integrated, results show that variation of annual mean streamflow in all sub-basins ranges between +/- 20%. However, in most cases, the sign of the changes highly depends on the RCP chosen to achieve a warming level. |
英文关键词 | global mean temperature target hydrology La Plata basin regional hydrology impact |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439793900011 |
WOS关键词 | SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH-AMERICA ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MULTIMODEL DATASET ; DISCHARGE EVENTS ; WATER-RESOURCES ; BIAS CORRECTION ; 20-1ST CENTURY ; SURFACE-WATER ; PARANA RIVER |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36977 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ctr Invest Mar & Atmosfera UBA CONICET, UMI IFAECI CNRS, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina; 2.UBA, FCEN, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera & Oceanos, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Montroull, Natalia B.,Saurral, Ramiro I.,Camilloni, Ines A.. Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees C global warming above the pre-industrial level[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(8):3355-3368. |
APA | Montroull, Natalia B.,Saurral, Ramiro I.,&Camilloni, Ines A..(2018).Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees C global warming above the pre-industrial level.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(8),3355-3368. |
MLA | Montroull, Natalia B.,et al."Hydrological impacts in La Plata basin under 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees C global warming above the pre-industrial level".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.8(2018):3355-3368. |
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