Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5827 |
Long-term probability of drought characteristics based on Monte Carlo simulation approach | |
Montaseri, Majid1; Amirataee, Babak1,2; Yasi, Mehdi3 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
![]() |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:1页码:544-557 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Iran |
英文摘要 | In this study, an advanced stochastic procedure was applied to establish long-term probability of different drought characteristics in 10 different parts of the world with various climatic conditions. Such purpose cannot be accomplished with a single historical data record, because the historical data record, no matter its length, represents only a realization of all such possible sequences of similar length. For this reason, a stochastic procedure was extensively used to generate alternative sequences of rainfall data in the selected 10 rainfall stations. Then, the generated synthetic rainfall sequences were served as a basis for drought monitoring using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which produce a set of realizations of possible drought characteristics. The long-term probability distribution of non-exceedance of drought duration, intensity, inter-arrival time, density function of wet and dry periods, empirical joint probability of drought duration and severity, and transition probabilities of drought events were considered and developed as very useful guide on drought management and investigation. The results indicated the essential advantages of proposed methodology (Monte Carlo procedure) in long-term drought characteristics investigations. |
英文关键词 | drought joint probability Monte Carlo stochastic models transition probability matrix |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000459638400039 |
WOS关键词 | CRITICAL PERIOD ; PREDICTION ; SPI ; PERFORMANCE ; INDEXES ; WET ; DRY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36998 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Urmia Univ, Dept Water Engn, Orumiyeh, Iran; 2.Fasa Univ, Dept Water Engn, Fasa, Iran; 3.Univ Tehran, Dept Irrigat & Reclamat Engn, Karaj Campus, Karaj, Iran |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Montaseri, Majid,Amirataee, Babak,Yasi, Mehdi. Long-term probability of drought characteristics based on Monte Carlo simulation approach[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(1):544-557. |
APA | Montaseri, Majid,Amirataee, Babak,&Yasi, Mehdi.(2019).Long-term probability of drought characteristics based on Monte Carlo simulation approach.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(1),544-557. |
MLA | Montaseri, Majid,et al."Long-term probability of drought characteristics based on Monte Carlo simulation approach".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.1(2019):544-557. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论