Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.4859 |
Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble | |
Ahmadalipour, Ali1; Moradkhani, Hamid1; Svoboda, Mark2 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37期号:5 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Drought is a natural hazard developing slowly and affecting large areas which may have severe consequences on society and economy. Due to the effects of climate change, drought is expected to exacerbate in various regions in future. In this study, the impact of climate change on drought characteristics is assessed, and statistical methods are employed to analyse the significance of projections. This is the first study utilizing 21 recently available downscaled global climate models generated by NASA (NEX-GDDP) to evaluate drought projections over various regions across the United States. Drought is investigated through a multi-model dual-index dual-scenario approach to probabilistically analyse drought attributes while characterizing the uncertainty in future drought projections. Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values at the seasonal scale (3 months) are used to project and analyse meteorological drought conditions from 1950 to 2099 at 0.25 degrees spatial resolution. Two future concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are considered for this analysis. Accounting for the combined effects of precipitation and temperature variations reveals a considerable aggravation in severity and extent of future drought in the western United States and a tendency toward more frequent and intense summer droughts across the Contiguous United States. |
英文关键词 | Drought climate change NASA-NEX SPI SPEI CONUS |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000398859700022 |
WOS关键词 | CALIFORNIA DROUGHT ; GLOBAL DROUGHT ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; CMIP5 ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; RISK ; SIMULATIONS ; VARIABILITY ; EXTREMES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37174 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Portland State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Remote Sensing & Water Resources Lab, Portland, OR 97207 USA; 2.Univ Nebraska Lincoln, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Sch Nat Resources, Lincoln, NE USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ahmadalipour, Ali,Moradkhani, Hamid,Svoboda, Mark. Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(5). |
APA | Ahmadalipour, Ali,Moradkhani, Hamid,&Svoboda, Mark.(2017).Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(5). |
MLA | Ahmadalipour, Ali,et al."Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.5(2017). |
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