GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.4859
Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble
Ahmadalipour, Ali1; Moradkhani, Hamid1; Svoboda, Mark2
2017-04-01
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2017
卷号37期号:5
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Drought is a natural hazard developing slowly and affecting large areas which may have severe consequences on society and economy. Due to the effects of climate change, drought is expected to exacerbate in various regions in future. In this study, the impact of climate change on drought characteristics is assessed, and statistical methods are employed to analyse the significance of projections. This is the first study utilizing 21 recently available downscaled global climate models generated by NASA (NEX-GDDP) to evaluate drought projections over various regions across the United States. Drought is investigated through a multi-model dual-index dual-scenario approach to probabilistically analyse drought attributes while characterizing the uncertainty in future drought projections. Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index values at the seasonal scale (3 months) are used to project and analyse meteorological drought conditions from 1950 to 2099 at 0.25 degrees spatial resolution. Two future concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are considered for this analysis. Accounting for the combined effects of precipitation and temperature variations reveals a considerable aggravation in severity and extent of future drought in the western United States and a tendency toward more frequent and intense summer droughts across the Contiguous United States.


英文关键词Drought climate change NASA-NEX SPI SPEI CONUS
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000398859700022
WOS关键词CALIFORNIA DROUGHT ; GLOBAL DROUGHT ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; CMIP5 ; TEMPERATURE ; PROJECTIONS ; RISK ; SIMULATIONS ; VARIABILITY ; EXTREMES
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37174
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Portland State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Remote Sensing & Water Resources Lab, Portland, OR 97207 USA;
2.Univ Nebraska Lincoln, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Sch Nat Resources, Lincoln, NE USA
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Ahmadalipour, Ali,Moradkhani, Hamid,Svoboda, Mark. Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37(5).
APA Ahmadalipour, Ali,Moradkhani, Hamid,&Svoboda, Mark.(2017).Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37(5).
MLA Ahmadalipour, Ali,et al."Centennial drought outlook over the CONUS using NASA-NEX downscaled climate ensemble".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37.5(2017).
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