GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5499
Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling
Malinovic-Milicevic, Slavica1; Vyklyuk, Yaroslav2; Radovanovic, Milan M.3,5; Petrovic, Marko D.4,5
2018-06-30
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38期号:8页码:3264-3272
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Serbia; Ukraine; Russia
英文摘要

In this article, we proposed a simple neural network (NN) technique for estimating erythemal ultraviolet (UV) radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) using available input parameters. The technique implies the use of one of two models depending on the availability of the input parameter: (a) NN model 1 (NNM1) which uses global solar radiation, clearness index, cloudiness and air mass; and (b) NN model 2 (NNM2) which adds total ozone content (TOC) to the NNM1 inputs. The three feed-forward NNs with different internal structures and back propagation learning method for each NN model were used in modelling. The parallel calculation was used for learning each NN. The results showed that the NNM1 provides satisfactory estimate (R=0.975, MBE=-0.614%, MAPE=12.580%, RMSE= 17.716%) and that additional use of TOC NNM2 considerably improves the results (R=0.982, MBE=-0.726%, MAPE=10.161%, RMSE=14.509%). The performances of developed NNMs become significantly better if warm part of the year is isolated (MAPE=10.981 and 8.958; RMSE=13.889 and 11.709, for NNM1 and NNM2, respectively). Variations of reconstructed annual averages of daily doses in the period 1949-2012 indicate ability of the technique to model the relationship between erythemal UV radiation and the affecting atmospheric factors. The analysis showed that the increasing trend during the warm part of the year in the period 1981-1996 was mainly caused by TOC, while the increase after 1996 was to a greater extent caused by cloudiness.


英文关键词clearness index erythemal UV radiation global solar radiation neural network model reconstruction
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000439793900005
WOS关键词UV-RADIATION ; IRRADIANCE ; INDEX ; SITE ; TRENDS ; OZONE ; DEPTH ; PAR
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37260
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Novi Sad, Univ Ctr Meteorol & Environm Modelling, ACIMSI, Dositeja Obradovica Sq 5, Novi Sad 21000, Serbia;
2.Bukovinian Univ, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, Chernovtsy, Ukraine;
3.Serbian Acad Arts & Sci, Geog Inst Jovan Cvijic, Phys Geog Dept, Belgrade, Serbia;
4.Serbian Acad Arts & Sci, Geog Inst Jovan Cvijic, Social Geog Dept, Belgrade, Serbia;
5.South Ural State Univ, Dept Tourism & Sociocultural Serv, Chelyabinsk, Russia
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GB/T 7714
Malinovic-Milicevic, Slavica,Vyklyuk, Yaroslav,Radovanovic, Milan M.,et al. Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(8):3264-3272.
APA Malinovic-Milicevic, Slavica,Vyklyuk, Yaroslav,Radovanovic, Milan M.,&Petrovic, Marko D..(2018).Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(8),3264-3272.
MLA Malinovic-Milicevic, Slavica,et al."Long-term erythemal ultraviolet radiation in Novi Sad (Serbia) reconstructed by neural network modelling".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.8(2018):3264-3272.
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