GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1002/joc.5210
EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulation of precipitation on Scottish islands (1971-2000): model performance and implications for decision-making in topographically complex regions
Foley, Aideen1; Kelman, Ilan2,3,4
2018-02-01
发表期刊INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
EISSN1097-0088
出版年2018
卷号38期号:2页码:1087-1095
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England; Norway
英文摘要

Due to their scale and complex topography, islands such as the Hebrides and Shetland Islands are not completely resolved by global climate models, which may impact the quality of data that can be provided about future climate in such locations. In principle, dynamical downscaling may provide helpful additional detail about future local climate. However, there is also the potential for error and uncertainty to cascade through to the regional simulation. Here, we evaluate the simulative skill of the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble on regional and local scales in the Hebrides and Shetland Islands, and consider the potential for such models to aid decision-making in island settings, and other locations characterized by complex topography. Several precipitation indices (accumulated precipitation amount, mean daily precipitation amount, max 1-day and 5-day precipitation amounts, simple daily intensity, number of heavy and very heavy precipitation days) are used to assess model performance and identify bias relative to observations. Models are compared regionally, and at specific locations, namely Stornoway in the Hebrides and Lerwick in Shetland, for the period 1971-2000. Regional evaluation utilizes the UKCP09 gridded observational data set and local evaluation at Stornoway Airport and Lerwick utilizes observed mean precipitation and extreme indices from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project. While no models perform skilfully across all the metrics studied, some models capture aspects of the precipitation climate at each location particularly well. Differences in model performance between the two case study sites highlight the value of evaluating models on multiple spatial scales. The implications of model uncertainty for decision-making are also discussed.


英文关键词regional climate models model evaluation climate change uncertainty
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000423816900039
WOS关键词RISK-MANAGEMENT ; RCM ENSEMBLE ; PROJECTIONS ; VULNERABILITY ; INDEXES ; UNCERTAINTY ; INFORMATION ; TEMPERATURE ; SCOTLAND ; IMPACT
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:8[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37307
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Birkbeck Univ London, Dept Geog, 32 Tavistock Sq, London WC1H 9EZ, England;
2.UCL, UCL Inst Risk & Disaster Reduct, London, England;
3.UCL, UCL Inst Global Hlth, London, England;
4.Univ Agder, Kristiansand, Norway
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Foley, Aideen,Kelman, Ilan. EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulation of precipitation on Scottish islands (1971-2000): model performance and implications for decision-making in topographically complex regions[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2018,38(2):1087-1095.
APA Foley, Aideen,&Kelman, Ilan.(2018).EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulation of precipitation on Scottish islands (1971-2000): model performance and implications for decision-making in topographically complex regions.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,38(2),1087-1095.
MLA Foley, Aideen,et al."EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulation of precipitation on Scottish islands (1971-2000): model performance and implications for decision-making in topographically complex regions".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 38.2(2018):1087-1095.
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