Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.5010 |
Exploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for Sao Paulo, Brazil | |
Coelho, Caio A. S.1; Firpo, Mari A. F.1; Maia, Aline H. N.2; MacLachlan, Craig3 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Brazil; England |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the feasibility and presents an assessment of probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for Sao Paulo, Brazil, located in a region with a well-defined wet season from mid-austral spring (October) to austral autumn (March/April). The probabilistic forecasts were produced with (1) a simple empirical Cox-regression model using July Nino-3 index as predictor, (2) the dynamical coupled atmosphere-land-surface-ocean-sea-ice model used in the UK Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) and (3) a procedure that combines the empirical and dynamical model onset probabilistic forecasts. The probabilistic forecast assessment was performed over the 1996-2009 retrospective forecast period for the event rainy season onset earlier (or later) than the historical (mean) onset date. The three investigated approaches resulted in similar discrimination ability of around 80%, which represents the probability of the probabilistic forecasts correctly distinguishing earlier from a later than mean onsets, suggesting good potential for rainy season onset forecasts for Sao Paulo. The robustness of this assessment for an extended period (longer than 1996-2009) and for a region (20 degrees S, 25 degrees S, 45 degrees W, 55 degrees W) that includes the city of Sao Paulo was checked, reinforcing the validity of the obtained results at both local and regional scales. |
英文关键词 | rainy season onset probabilistic forecasts empirical dynamical and combined forecasts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417298600028 |
WOS关键词 | MULTIVARIATE DATA-ANALYSIS ; PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; REGRESSION-MODELS ; EL-NINO ; MONSOON ; RESIDUALS ; AMERICA |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37316 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, Rodovia Presidente Dutra KM 40, BR-12630000 Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil; 2.Empresa Brasileira Pesquisa Agr EMBRAPA Meio Ambi, Lab Geotecnol & Metodos Quantitat, Jaguariana, SP, Brazil; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Coelho, Caio A. S.,Firpo, Mari A. F.,Maia, Aline H. N.,et al. Exploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for Sao Paulo, Brazil[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37. |
APA | Coelho, Caio A. S.,Firpo, Mari A. F.,Maia, Aline H. N.,&MacLachlan, Craig.(2017).Exploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for Sao Paulo, Brazil.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37. |
MLA | Coelho, Caio A. S.,et al."Exploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for Sao Paulo, Brazil".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论