Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.4987 |
Characterizing present and future drought changes over eastern China | |
Chen, Huopo1,2,3; Sun, Jianqi1,2,3 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 37 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | This study aimed to characterize present and future drought changes over eastern China using observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. We used the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to characterize droughts at the timescales of 3- and 12-month. We distinguished the spatial patterns of drought regimes (DRs) using the rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) on the SPEI. Our results identified three DRs centered in northern China (DR1), northeastern China (DR2), and southern China (DR3). Droughts in these regimes have increased in recent decades. Most CMIP5 models reproduce at least two of the DRs. The rotated EOF results indicate that the three DRs can jointly explain 46-68% of the SPEI variance (compared with approximately 60% in the observations). Among the 33 CMIP5 models analysed in this study, 13 simulated all three DRs well and showed a strong correlation pattern (>0.5). Further analysis indicated that both the external natural and greenhouse gas forcing experiments in CMIP5 reproduced the DRs, implying that natural variability and anthropogenic activity play important roles in the formation of these DRs. With continued climate warming, the three DRs over eastern China will persist. Despite the uncertainties in drought changes that mainly depend on the potential evapotranspiration methods, climate model results suggest that droughts would be aggravated under warming scenarios. The probability of severe droughts increase by the end of the century: 33% in DR1, 25% in DR2, 34% in DR3 in RCP4.5 and almost double in RCP8.5 scenario in Thornthwaite method based SPEI estimates. |
英文关键词 | drought standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index evapotranspiration anthropogenic activity projection |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417298600010 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; SOUTHWEST CHINA ; SOUTHERN CHINA ; NORTH CHINA ; PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE ; INDEX ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; TEMPERATURE ; TREND |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/37437 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Joint Lab Climate & Environm Change, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Huopo,Sun, Jianqi. Characterizing present and future drought changes over eastern China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2017,37. |
APA | Chen, Huopo,&Sun, Jianqi.(2017).Characterizing present and future drought changes over eastern China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,37. |
MLA | Chen, Huopo,et al."Characterizing present and future drought changes over eastern China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 37(2017). |
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